In Western Europe, Populist Parties Tap Anti-Establishment Frustration but Have Little Appeal Across Ideological Divide
Protesters
in Kandel, Germany, demonstrate over migration politics and domestic
security in April. (Uli Deck/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
In
Western Europe, populist parties and movements have disrupted the
region’s political landscape by making significant gains at the ballot
box – from the Brexit referendum to national elections in Italy. The
anti-establishment sentiments helping to fuel the populist wave can be
found on the left, center and right of the ideological spectrum, as a
Pew Research Center survey highlights. People who hold these populist
views are more frustrated with traditional institutions, such as their
national parliament and the European Union, than are their mainstream
counterparts. They are also more concerned about the economy and anxious
about the impact of immigrants on their society.
This
dissatisfaction may in part be why they are more favorable toward
populist parties; still, regardless of populist sentiments, people tend
to favor parties that reflect their own ideological orientation. With
regard to policy, too, ideology continues to matter. Left-right
differences carry more weight than populist sympathies when it comes to
how people view the government’s involvement in the economy, as well as
the rights of gays and lesbians and women’s role in society.
These
are among the findings of an in-depth Pew Research Center public
opinion study that maps the political space in eight Western European
countries – Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain,
Sweden and the United Kingdom – based on a survey of 16,114 adults
conducted from Oct. 30 to Dec. 20, 2017. Together, these eight European
Union (EU) member states account for roughly 70% of the EU population
and 75% of the EU economy.
1
The study’s purpose is to evaluate how the intersection of ideology and
populist views within and across these publics shapes attitudes about
policies, institutions, political parties and values.
In this
report, survey respondents are categorized into groups based on their
self-placement along the left-center-right ideological spectrum and on
whether they express support for populist views. The measure of ideology
is general and not specific to either economic or social values. The
measure of populist views primarily focuses on anti-establishment
attitudes – whether respondents believe that ordinary people would do a
better job than elected officials at solving the country’s problems, and
whether most elected officials care what people like them think.
Anti-establishment attitudes constitute a core component of many
definitions of populism. In this analysis, the combination of ideology
and anti-establishment attitudes leads to the identification of six
political groups: Left Populists, Left Mainstream, Center Populists,
Center Mainstream, Right Populists and Right Mainstream. (For more on
how these groups are defined, please see the explanatory box and
Appendix A.)
Analyzing the political landscape in Western Europe
People who hold populist views are more unhappy with institutions, economy and immigration
Across
the ideological spectrum, people with populist views share a deep
distrust of traditional institutions. This dissatisfaction affects not
just attitudes about the national parliament but a range of institutions
across society, including the news media and banks, as well as the
European Union (EU). In fact, when it comes to opinions of the EU,
populist views are often a more significant dividing line than ideology.
For example, in the Netherlands, roughly six-in-ten or fewer among the
left, center and right populist groups say that membership in the
Brussels-based organization has been good for their country’s economy,
compared with three-quarters or more among those in the mainstream on
the left, center and right. People with populist sympathies also express
higher support for returning powers from the EU to their national
government than those in the mainstream. (For more on Western European
views of the news media, see “
In Western Europe, Public Attitudes Toward News Media More Divided by Populist Views Than Left-Right Ideology”.)
Journalists and scholars have
fiercely debated
whether economic struggles underlie publics’ support for populist
movements. By analyzing populist views across the ideological spectrum,
this study finds that people who are critical of the establishment are
somewhat more likely than those in the mainstream to have faced economic
hardship, such as unemployment. Perhaps in part because of this
experience, Left, Center and Right Populists are much more dissatisfied
with the national economy and, in half the countries surveyed, more
likely than their mainstream ideological counterparts to support the
government providing economic assistance to the public.
Additionally,
anti-establishment sentiments and attitudes about immigration are
linked, the study finds. Overall, left-right ideology is the most
prominent divide in public attitudes about immigrants. Still, across the
left-right spectrum, respondents with populist views are consistently
more negative toward immigrants than those in the mainstream who share
their ideological position. For example, in the Netherlands, both Left
Populist and Left Mainstream respondents are less likely than their
counterparts on the right to say immigrants increase the risk of
terrorism. At the same time, the Left Populist group (38%) still
expresses higher levels of concern than the Left Mainstream (26%).
Similarly, the Center and Right Populist groups in the Netherlands
generally hold more negative attitudes about immigrants than the Center
and Right Mainstream groups, respectively. Across a number of questions
about immigrants, Right Populists tend to be the most negative group.
Given
this pattern of attitudes, it is perhaps unsurprising that people with
anti-establishment views tend to hold more favorable opinions of
populist parties. For example, in France, 34% of Right Populist
respondents have a positive view of the National Front (FN), a
right-aligned populist party, compared with 21% of those in the Right
Mainstream.
2
Similarly, in the Netherlands, there is a 17-percentage-point gap in
favorability toward the right-aligned Party for Freedom (PVV) between
the Right Populist and Right Mainstream groups. This pattern holds for
nearly all populist parties asked about in the survey.
Still, ideology is the main divide on important policy areas, with smaller differences by populist views
While
populist views play a significant role in some key areas, the
attitudinal differences between people who place themselves on the left
and those who place themselves on the right tend to be larger across a
range of major issues asked about. The left-right divide is particularly
large on the issue of immigration, but is also quite substantial on
attitudes about the role of the government in the economy. A clear
illustration of this is the question of whether it is the government’s
responsibility to ensure a decent standard of living for all or if it is
the individual’s responsibility to do so. In most countries surveyed,
respondents categorized as Left Mainstream are at least 20 percentage
points more likely than those in the Right Mainstream to say it is the
government’s responsibility. While in some cases the populist groups
studied are more supportive of government assistance than those in the
mainstream, the divide by populist views tends to be smaller than the
ideological divide in most countries.
In the UK, for example,
nearly seven-in-ten Left Mainstream respondents (68%) think the
government should help people have a decent standard of living. About a
third of the Right Mainstream agree (32%), for a difference of 36
percentage points. The gaps between the populist and mainstream groups
at each point on the ideological scale are much smaller – a 16-point
difference between Right Populists and the Right Mainstream, 11 points
between the two groups on the left, and a statistically insignificant 4
points in the center.
Attitudes about political parties also largely determined by ideology
While
people who are frustrated with the establishment are more supportive of
populist parties than respondents in the mainstream groups studied,
they have not yet abandoned traditional parties. Instead, people on the
left – whether or not they hold populist views – tend to prefer
left-leaning political parties, while those on the right prefer
right-leaning parties. This pattern reveals that respondents with
populist sympathies are not supportive of populist parties irrespective
of ideology, but rather are supportive of parties that are consistent
with their own ideological leanings.
Categorizing political parties in Western Europe
Despite
its significant shift in the party system in the past two years, France
provides a clear example of this dynamic. More than four-in-ten of both
the Right Mainstream (46%) and Right Populists (44%) have a favorable
view of the Republicans (LR), the traditional, right-aligned party in
France. Fewer than two-in-ten respondents in the Left Mainstream (15%)
and Left Populists (11%) feel the same. Both groups on the left have
more positive views than either group on the right of the traditional,
left-aligned Socialist Party (PS).
The two populist parties in
France that are on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum – the
National Front on the right, led by Marine Le Pen, and La France
Insoumise on the left, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – appeal most strongly
to respondents from their respective ideological camps who hold populist
views. These two parties repel the populist groups on the opposite side
of the ideological spectrum, however. For example, 68% of Left Populist
respondents have a favorable view of La France Insoumise, while just
24% of Right Populists say the same.
En Marche – the new party
that emerged with Emmanuel Macron in 2016 and is neither traditional nor
populist – gets higher ratings from all three mainstream groups, as
well as from the two populist groups in the center and on the right.
Left Populist respondents are the most negative about the party.
Mapping the political space in Western Europe
This
report identifies six key political groups across Western Europe based
on people’s left-right ideology and their support for populist views.
3
In all countries surveyed, minorities hold populist views, though these
minorities are somewhat larger in Spain, Italy and France. Majorities
in each country tend to be in the mainstream (defined as not holding
populist views). A seventh group is the Unaligned – individuals who do
not place themselves on the left-right ideological spectrum.
The
political groups differ considerably from each other in terms of
demographics. Populists tend to be less affluent and less educated than
those in the mainstream, and they often express lower levels of
political interest. In most countries, people on the ideological left
tend to be younger than those in the center or on the right, with the
Center Mainstream and Right Mainstream standing out as among the oldest
groups in many countries. The Unaligned group is often the least
affluent, least educated and least politically interested of all the
groups. And unlike most other groups, which have similar gender
balances, the Unaligned tend to be disproportionately female.
These
groups differ widely from one another in their positions on various
issues, too. The Right Mainstream stand out for the primacy they place
on individual responsibility, while the Left Mainstream tend to support
government involvement in the economy. Right Populists express the most
skepticism of the European Union and its impact on their country, though
Left and Center Populists also say the Brussels-based institution
negatively affects their country’s economy at higher rates than those in
the mainstream. The two groups on the right also tend to express more
concerns about immigrants than those on the left, with Right Populists
standing out as the most negative.
Defining distinct political groups across Western Europe
This
report analyzes six political groups and a seventh group of Unaligned
respondents. The groups are created based on two key dimensions:
left-right ideological self-placement and populist views. Respondents
were asked to place themselves along an ideological scale, ranging from
far left (zero) to far right (six). Based on this self-report, people
are classified as left (zero to two), center (three) or right (four to
six). Those who did not offer an ideological self-placement are
classified as Unaligned.
These three ideological groups are
further divided by populist and mainstream views. The measure of
populist views used in this survey is based on respondents’ answers to
two questions: 1) Ordinary people would do a better job/do no better
solving the country’s problems than elected officials and 2) Most
elected officials care/don’t care what people like me think. Those who
answered that elected officials do not care about people like them and
who say ordinary people would do a better job solving the country’s
problems than elected officials are considered to hold populist views;
everyone else is considered to hold mainstream views. (For more details
on how these groups were created, see
Appendix A.)
Combining
the measures of ideology and populist views results in seven analytical
groups: Left Populists, Left Mainstream, Center Populists, Center
Mainstream, Right Populists, Right Mainstream and the Unaligned. These
groups show distinct attitudinal patterns.
Left
Mainstream: This group expresses higher support for gender equality,
LGBT rights and government involvement in the economy. They also tend to
be the group most likely to say that EU membership has benefited their
country’s economy. In most countries, the Left Mainstream stand apart
substantially from the Right Mainstream on the issue of immigrants;
those in the Left Mainstream are the least likely to see immigrants as a
burden on the economy.
Left Populists: This group holds
relatively similar views to those in the Left Mainstream, with two
notable exceptions. First, Left Populists are more skeptical of the EU
than those in the Left Mainstream. Second, in a majority of countries,
they are more likely than those in the Left Mainstream to say that
regulating business is bad.
Center Mainstream: This group tends
to fall somewhere between the Left Mainstream and the Right Mainstream
on most issues. For example, while majorities of the Center Mainstream
in most countries support LGBT couples being able to adopt children,
they are somewhat less supportive than those in the Left Mainstream and
more supportive than those in the Right Mainstream. The same is true
when it comes to views of immigrants. But, when it comes to views of
government regulation of the economy, in most countries, the Center
Mainstream tend to look slightly more like the Right Mainstream than the
Left Mainstream.
Center Populists: Similar to the Center
Mainstream, this group tends to have attitudes that place them somewhat
between Left Populists and Right Populists. For example, when it comes
to attitudes about immigrants, Center Populists are more likely than
Left Populists to think that immigrants increase the risk of terrorist
attacks but less likely than Right Populists to feel that way. But, like
populist groups across the ideological spectrum, Center Populists are
more likely than those in the mainstream to see the EU’s influence as
negative.
Right Mainstream: This group stands apart from others
for the emphasis they place on individual, rather than government,
responsibility in economic issues. Beyond this sense that the government
should intervene little in the economy, the Right Mainstream also tend
to be the most traditional on social issues of all of the groups, and
they are relatively more negative about the impact of immigrants. Most
in the Right Mainstream also have positive opinions of the EU’s impact
on their country.
Right Populists: Right Populists stand apart
from the other groups for their very negative attitudes about the EU and
immigrants. For example, they are more likely to see immigrants as a
burden on the economy, even relative to Left Populists and Center
Populists, and majorities tend to think immigrants increase the risk of
terrorist attacks. Right Populists differ little from the Right
Mainstream on social issues.
Younger people tend to fall on the ideological left
The
seven groups differ considerably in age. In most countries, those on
the ideological left tend to be younger than those in the center or on
the right. These differences are generally larger than differences
between populists and the mainstream. For example, in the UK, 34% of the
Left Mainstream and 35% of Left Populists are younger than 30, compared
with 17% of the Right Mainstream and 20% of Right Populists.
Populist groups, Unaligned tend to be less economically well-off and less educated than those in the mainstream
Populist
groups are somewhat more likely to have experienced unemployment. For
example, in Denmark, 37% of Center Populists say they or their family
members have been unemployed or looked for work for more than three
months during the past year, compared with 19% of the Center Mainstream.
There are also smaller gaps of 11 percentage points between Left
Populists (31%) and the Left Mainstream (20%) in Denmark and of 8 points
between Right Populists and the Right Mainstream (24% vs. 16%). Aside
from Germany, at least three-in-ten Left Populists have had some
experience with unemployment.
Still,
the percentage of the public that has had experience with unemployment
differs widely across countries. In Germany and Sweden, experience with
unemployment is below 20% for nearly all groups, while at least
three-in-ten of all groups say they or their families have been
unemployed in the past year in France, Spain and Italy.
People
who endorse populist views and the Unaligned also stand out for having
relatively lower incomes than those in the mainstream.
4
For example, in the UK, 44% or more of Left Populists, Center Populists
and Right Populists are lower income, compared with 28% of the Center
Mainstream, 35% of the Left Mainstream and 41% of the Right Mainstream.
The Unaligned tend to be among the least well-off of all the political
groups; in all eight countries, roughly half or more have lower incomes,
ranging from a low of 47% in Germany and Sweden to a high of 66% in
Spain. By comparison, fewer than 40% of the Left Mainstream are lower
income in most surveyed countries.
Finally,
the Unaligned and populist groups also tend to be somewhat less
educated than the mainstream. In the Netherlands, for example, 88% of
the Unaligned have no postsecondary education. The same is true for
around eight-in-ten of each of that country’s populist groups. In
contrast, only 55% of the Left Mainstream and 66% of the Right
Mainstream fall into this lower educational group.
While those
with populist views on the left and right tend to have less education
than those in the mainstream, this is particularly true of Right
Populists. For example, in Germany, 84% of Right Populists have a
secondary education or less, compared with 79% and 73% of Center and
Left Populists, respectively. Among the German mainstream groups, around
six-in-ten or fewer have a secondary education or less. Germany also
exhibits a pattern common in most countries: The Left Mainstream tend to
be the most educated. Around half of the German Left Mainstream (48%)
have a university degree, compared with 36% of the Center Mainstream and
40% of the Right Mainstream.
Unaligned and populist groups are less politically engaged
Western
Europeans tend to be relatively interested in politics, with a median
of 55% saying they are at least somewhat interested in the topic. This
varies widely by country, however, from a high of 70% in Germany to a
low of 37% in Italy.
The Unaligned are by far the least
politically engaged among the groups in all countries. In Spain, for
example, only 15% of the Unaligned say they are interested in politics –
nearly 30 percentage points lower than the next-least-interested group
in the country, the Center Populists. Perhaps reflecting its limited
political engagement, the Unaligned group also stands out for having the
most people who do not identify with any particular political party in
their country. In six of the eight countries, the Unaligned group is at
least 20 percentage points less likely to have a partisan identification
than any other group in the country. For example, in Sweden, 69% of the
Unaligned do not identify with a party, compared with 36% of Center
Populists, the next most unaffiliated group.
People with
populist sympathies tend to be less politically engaged than those in
the mainstream. This is particularly the case for Center Populists. In
six of the eight countries, fewer than half of Center Populists say they
are interested in politics, with the notable exceptions being France
and Germany (where 53% and 66% are interested in politics,
respectively). Among mainstream groups, around six-in-ten or more in
each country say they are interested in the topic, ranging from 58% in
Italy and the Netherlands to highs of 83% in Germany, though interest is
somewhat higher among the Left Mainstream. Center Populists also have
the highest rates of partisan unaffiliation outside of the Unaligned.
When
it comes to political interest, there are two exceptions. Whereas in
many countries the Left Populists are among the least interested groups,
in Spain, Left Populists are the most interested in politics, with 68%
saying they are very or somewhat interested, compared with 60% or less
in all other groups (such as 44% of Center Populists and 45% of Right
Populists). In the Netherlands, too, Left Populists (58%) have high
interest levels that mirror those of the Left and Right Mainstream (58%
and 56%, respectively).
On economic policy, Western European public opinion deeply divided along traditional ideological lines
By
Katie Simmons,
Laura Silver,
Courtney Johnson,
Kyle Taylor and
Richard Wike Western
European publics generally favor an active role for the government in
the economy. More than half of the public in most countries surveyed say
it is the government’s responsibility to ensure a decent standard of
living for all, and similar shares also say that government regulation
of business is generally good for society. However, these eight publics
differ markedly in their assessments of how their economies are
performing.
Opinions on economic policy largely break along traditional left-right ideological lines.
5
Most of those on the left favor government intervention in the economy,
while those on the right are more skeptical. Populists’ views tend to
fall closest to their mainstream ideological counterparts. Left
Populists are usually most similar to the Left Mainstream; Right
Populists, to the Right Mainstream. But to the degree that people with
populist sympathies differ from people in the mainstream, they are
somewhat more likely to see the government as having a responsibility to
guarantee everyone a basic standard of living and somewhat less likely
to support regulating business. Populists across the ideological
spectrum are also much more pessimistic about the state of the economy,
in general, than those in the mainstream.
Amid divides across countries in ratings of economy, those with populist views are more negative
European
publics diverge in their assessments of their country’s economies. More
than eight-in-ten in Sweden (87%), Denmark (87%), the Netherlands (86%)
and Germany (85%) say their current economic situation is good,
compared with fewer than half who say the same elsewhere. Italians and
Spaniards are especially negative: 71% in Spain and 82% in Italy say the
economic situation is bad, with 34% of Spaniards and 31% of Italians
saying it is very bad.
People with populist views are generally
less positive about the economy than those in the mainstream. France
illustrates this pattern well. There, similar minorities of Left, Center
and Right Populists see the economy doing well (24%, 21% and 27%,
respectively) – assessments which are significantly lower than those of
the Left, Center and Right Mainstream (44%, 43% and 41%, respectively).
Germany
follows a similar pattern: Roughly nine-in-ten of the Left (91%),
Center (92%) and Right Mainstream (88%) say the current economic
situation in Germany is good, while about three-quarters of Left (76%),
Center (74%) and Right Populists (77%) feel the same.
Left and right split over government’s responsibility to guarantee a decent standard of living
More
than half of the public in six of the eight countries surveyed say it
is the government’s responsibility to ensure a decent standard of living
for all. Support for government assistance is highest in Italy and
Spain, where more than six-in-ten say it is the government’s
responsibility, including 55% in Italy and 43% in Spain who feel this
way strongly. Germany is the only country where public opinion falls on
the other side of this issue: Just 35% of Germans think the government
should be responsible, while 57% say that individuals should earn a
decent standard of living for themselves.
Left-right ideology is
central to how people feel about this issue. In general, most on the
left place responsibility on the government to guarantee that everyone
has a decent standard of living, while many on the right do not. In
seven of the eight countries – the notable exception being Germany –
widespread majorities of roughly seven-in-ten or more of groups on the
left place the responsibility on government. For example, in the
Netherlands, 71% of the Left Mainstream take this position compared with
half of the Right Mainstream.
In Denmark, Germany, the
Netherlands and Sweden, people with populist views differ little from
their mainstream counterparts on this issue. Take Denmark as an example:
About seven-in-ten Danes on the left favor government responsibility –
including 71% of the Left Mainstream and 69% of Left Populists. On the
other end of the spectrum, about four-in-ten on the right say the same,
with little difference between the Right Mainstream and Right Populists.
In
France, Italy, Spain and the UK, there are more pronounced differences
between populists and the rest of the public, with populists being
somewhat more likely to express support for government assistance than
those in the mainstream. For instance, about three-quarters of French
Left Populists (77%) say it is government’s responsibility to ensure a
decent standard of living for all, compared with two-thirds of the
French Left Mainstream. And while those on the right are generally less
favorable to government guarantees, Right Populists in Italy, Spain and
the UK are more open to government solutions than the Right Mainstream.
On government regulation of business, left-right divides are somewhat more consistent than differences by populist views
In
each country surveyed, about half or more say it is generally good for
society if government regulates business. This ranges from a high of 72%
in Spain to a low of 51% in the Netherlands.
Views on
regulation, like those on the social safety net, are grounded in
ideology. Most on the left say it is good to regulate business, while
the right tends to be less in favor. But populist views also play a role
on this issue, especially on the left. Left Populists tend to be
significantly more likely than the Left Mainstream to say regulation is
bad, while Right Populists differ little from the Right Mainstream in
their evaluations.
Denmark provides a clear example: While many
on the left say regulation is a good thing, the Left Mainstream (69%)
are significantly more likely to take that stance than Left Populists
(52%). In contrast, Danish Right Populists and the Right Mainstream are
equally likely to say regulation is good – 46% of each group. In Italy
and France, Right Populists differ from the Right Mainstream and are
much less supportive of regulation.
Ideological right more traditional on social issues
Most
people across Western Europe support allowing gays and lesbians to
adopt children, and many also believe family life is better when women
have full-time jobs. While these opinions are fairly widespread, the
ideological left is more likely to hold these views than the right.
Traditional left-right ideology strongly divides people’s views on gay
and lesbian adoption across much of Western Europe, with populist
sympathies playing only a limited role.
6 Wide support for allowing gays and lesbians to adopt children
In
seven of the eight countries surveyed, about two-thirds or more of the
public believes gays and lesbians should be able to adopt children. And
in six of these countries, more than half feel this way strongly. Italy
is a notable exception. There, roughly half (52%) oppose allowing gays
and lesbians to adopt children, and 42% strongly oppose it.
Left-right
ideology influences how people feel about the issue, for both populist
groups and those in the mainstream. The differences between left and
right are generally in the level of support, not the direction of it:
Outside of Italy, all groups on both the left and the right support
adoption by gays and lesbians, but support is more widespread on the
left.
Across the region, there is a clear left-right divide on
this issue: In every country, the Left Mainstream are more likely than
the Right Mainstream to support adoption by gays and lesbians. The same
is true for Left Populists compared with Right Populists. For example,
in the UK, 88% of the Left Mainstream say gays and lesbians should be
able adopt children, while 65% of the Right Mainstream agree. There is a
similar 20-percentage-point difference between Left Populists and Right
Populists. Groups on the left are also much more likely to express
strong support than those on the right. Continuing the example of the
UK, 68% of Left Populists and 74% of the Left Mainstream strongly
support adoption by gays and lesbians, compared with 38% of Right
Populists and 43% of the Right Mainstream.
Less regional consensus when it comes to views on gender roles
A
median of 58% across Western Europe say it is better for family life
when women have full-time jobs. In Sweden, more than half (53%) feel
this way strongly. Italy, Germany and the Netherlands are more divided.
In these countries, more than four-in-ten say family life is worse when
women have full-time jobs.
This issue is not as ideologically
divisive as adoption by gays and lesbians, but there are still
significant differences between the left and the right in five
countries. For example, roughly three-quarters of Spaniards who place
themselves on the left say it is better for family life when women have
full-time jobs, including 77% of Left Populists and 72% of the Left
Mainstream. Fewer on the right take this view, though majorities of both
Right Populists (64%) and the Right Mainstream (58%) agree.
There
are minimal differences between those with populist views and those in
the mainstream. However, in Denmark, Germany and the UK, the Left
Mainstream are more likely than Left Populists to say it is better for
family life when women have full-time jobs. In the UK, for instance,
nearly seven-in-ten in the Left Mainstream (68%) say family life is
better when women have full-time jobs, compared with 51% of Left
Populists. Only in Denmark is there a significant difference between
groups on the right.
Stark left-right divides on attitudes about immigration
Most
Western Europeans think immigrants strengthen their national economies.
However, publics are more split on whether immigrants increase the risk
of terrorism in their countries and overwhelmingly say it is best if
immigrants adopt the customs and traditions of the country to which
they’ve moved.
People’s left-right ideological positions shape their attitudes about immigration more than whether they hold populist views.
7
Those on the left are significantly more positive than the groups on
the right about immigration’s impact on their country. Still, people
with populist views are consistently more likely than their mainstream
ideological counterparts to think immigrants have a negative impact on
jobs and domestic security, with Right Populists often being the most
concerned about the effects of immigration.
Most Western Europeans say immigrants help the economy
Half
or more adults in seven of the eight Western European countries
surveyed say immigrants make their country’s economy stronger because of
their work and talents. This feeling is most widespread in both Sweden
and the UK (72%). About three-in-ten or fewer in seven of the eight
countries believe immigrants are a burden on their economy because they
take the country’s jobs.
Only in Italy is the public divided;
nearly equal shares say immigrants make the economy stronger (45%) as
say they are a burden (44%).
Across all eight countries, people
on the ideological right are more likely than those on the left to think
immigrants are an economic burden. For example, about half of the
Italian Right Mainstream (51%) see immigrants as an economic burden,
compared with just 18% of those in the Left Mainstream. In the
Netherlands, 34% of those in the Right Mainstream say immigrants
negatively impact the economy, while just 12% of the Left Mainstream
agree.
In nearly all countries surveyed, the differences between
those who hold populist views and those in the mainstream are also
significant, with those espousing populist views tending to be more
negative about the impact of immigration on their national economies. In
Germany, for example, Right Populists (47%) are significantly more
likely than their mainstream counterparts (20%) to see immigrants as a
burden. German Left Populists are also more likely than the Left
Mainstream (23% vs. 5%) to share this view, as are Center Populists
compared with the Center Mainstream (29% vs. 15%).
In most countries, Right Populists are the most likely of all groups to see immigrants as a drain on the economy.
Many Western European publics split on how immigration impacts terror risks
While
a majority of people across Western Europe think immigration
strengthens their economies, publics are split on whether immigration
increases the risk of terrorist attacks in their countries.
Germans
(51%) and Italians (50%) are the most likely to say immigrants increase
the risk of terrorism in their country. Italians are also the most
likely to say they strongly hold this view (34%).
But half or
more in five countries – the Netherlands, Denmark, the UK, Spain and
France – say immigrants do not increase the risk of terrorist attacks in
their country.
Left-right ideology tends to influence people’s
attitudes about immigration’s impact on security more than populist
views. In every country, people on the right are more likely than those
on the left to think immigrants increase the risk of terrorism in their
countries. Differences between those on the left and those on the right
in each country range from 24 to 31 percentage points. For example, 58%
of Germans in the Right Mainstream say immigrants are a security risk,
compared with just 28% of Germans in the Left Mainstream.
Still,
in most countries, populist groups are more negative toward immigrants
on the issue of security than their mainstream counterparts. For
example, 32% of British Left Populists think immigrants increase the
risk of terrorism, compared with just 17% of the Left Mainstream.
Right
Populists everywhere stand out for their negative views of immigrants.
In every country surveyed, at least half of Right Populists think
immigrants increase the likelihood of terror. This is particularly the
case in Italy, Germany and Sweden, where around seven-in-ten or more
Right Populists hold this position, about 20 percentage points higher
than the Right Mainstream in each country. In most countries, Right
Populists are also the most likely to say they strongly think immigrants
increase terrorism risks.
Western Europeans overwhelmingly want immigrants to integrate
Roughly
seven-in-ten in most Western European countries think it is necessary
for the good of society that immigrants adopt the customs and traditions
of their new country. Fewer Swedes say integration is essential, though
a majority (61%) still endorses it.
As with views on
immigrants’ impact on the economy and terrorism, left-right ideology
tends to shape peoples’ views on integration more than populist views.
In all countries, those on the right are much more likely than those on
the left to say it’s necessary for immigrants to adopt the customs and
traditions of their new country. For instance, 81% of Dutch people in
the Right Mainstream say integration is necessary, compared with 56% of
Left Mainstream.
Still, in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden,
populist attitudes also color people’s views of immigrant integration,
with those who hold populist views being more likely to believe
immigrants need to integrate than their mainstream counterparts. For
example, in Germany, 82% of Left Populists say immigrants must adopt
German customs and traditions, versus 51% of the Left Mainstream.
Populist groups across the ideological spectrum have low trust in institutions
Across
Western Europe, publics express very different levels of trust in
institutions. While the military is the most highly rated across all
eight countries, publics in France, Spain, Italy and the UK express much
lower levels of trust in other institutions, including financial
institutions, the news media and the national parliament.
In all
countries surveyed, people who espouse populist views have
significantly less trust in key institutions than those in the
mainstream. These populist-mainstream differences in trust are
especially pronounced when it comes to views of the national parliament,
and they overshadow the gap between those on the ideological left and
right.
8 Trust in most institutions is low in France, Italy, Spain and the UK
The
military is the most trusted of the four institutions asked about in
Western Europe (the military, the news media, financial institutions and
the national parliament). In all eight countries, at least two-thirds
say they trust the military, ranging from a low of 66% in Spain to a
high of 84% in France.
Trust is generally lower for the other
three institutions. Across all eight countries, no more than about
seven-in-ten say they trust the national parliament, banks or the news
media. And in three of the countries surveyed – France, Italy and Spain –
fewer than four-in-ten say this. In these three countries, the national
parliament is particularly poorly rated; only 33% of the French and 16%
of both Italians and Spaniards say they trust the institution. These
three countries also rate the news media and financial institutions much
lower than the other countries surveyed.
Similarly, in the
United Kingdom, few trust the national parliament or the news media.
Roughly a third trust either of these institutions, though a higher
percentage (54%) views banks in a positive light.
Populist groups across the ideological spectrum trust the national parliament, news media less than those in the mainstream
In
general, populists express lower levels of trust in institutions than
those in the mainstream. This is true for all four institutions asked
about – the national parliament, the news media, banks and financial
institutions, and even the military.
Differences
between people with populist views and the mainstream are most
pronounced when it comes to trust in the national parliament. In five of
the eight countries, Left Populists and Right Populists are at least 25
percentage points less likely to trust the national parliament than the
Left Mainstream or Right Mainstream, respectively. For example, in
Denmark, 16% of Left Populists trust the institution, compared with 61%
of the Left Mainstream; similarly, 27% of Right Populists trust
parliament, compared with 64% of the Right Mainstream. In no country do
more than half of any of the three populist groups say they trust
parliament – though it ranges from a low of 4% among Left Populists in
Spain to a high of 49% among Center Populists in the Netherlands.
While
significantly more people in the mainstream groups trust parliament
than in the three populist groups, there is some ideological variation
that largely mirrors which parties are in power. For example, in Sweden –
currently governed by a
left-leaning coalition
– 88% of the Left Mainstream trust the national parliament, compared
with 76% of the Center Mainstream and 71% of the Right Mainstream. The
opposite is true in the Conservative-led UK; there, 46% of the Left
Mainstream and 40% of the Center Mainstream trust the national
parliament, compared with 55% of the Right Mainstream.
Populists
on the left and the right also trust the news media less than those in
the mainstream. For example, in Germany, a majority of the Left
Mainstream (74%), Center Mainstream (71%) and Right Mainstream (65%) all
trust the news media; in contrast, half or fewer of Left (44%), Center
(50%) and Right Populists (38%) feel the same. Gaps in trust in the
media between those with populist views and the mainstream tend to be
significantly larger and more consistent than those between the
ideological left and right. (For more on Western European attitudes
about the news media, see “
In Western Europe, Public Attitudes Toward News Media More Divided by Populist Views Than Left-Right Ideology.”)
Left Populists have particularly low trust in financial institutions
In
six of the eight countries surveyed, people on the ideological right
trust financial institutions more than those on the left (the notable
exceptions being Germany and Italy). For example, 64% of the Right
Mainstream in the UK trust banks, compared with 50% of the Left
Mainstream. As with other institutions, people with populist views tend
to express lower levels of trust in banks than those in the mainstream.
Looking again at the UK, 64% of the Right Mainstream trust banks,
compared with 51% of British Right Populists.
Still, Left
Populists stand out for their low levels of trust in financial
institutions. For example, in the UK, only about a third (32%) of Left
Populists trust banks, compared with half or more in all other groups.
Trust is particularly low among Left Populists in Spain, where only 8%
trust banks.
Finally,
with regard to trust in the military, differences between populists and
the mainstream are more muted. While those with populist views are
still less likely to trust the military than the mainstream in nearly
all countries, the difference centers on Left Populists. In all
countries, they have the lowest levels of trust in the military. For
example, in Spain, whereas half or more of all other groups say they
trust the military, 41% of Left Populists say the same.
People who hold populist views are less likely to see EU membership bringing economic benefits
A
majority of Western Europeans in the eight countries surveyed say
membership in the European Union has been a good thing for their
nation’s economy. Despite these views, majorities say some EU powers
should be returned to national governments.
Those on the left tend to be relatively more pro-EU than those on the right.
9
People with populist views have less positive attitudes about the
institution’s economic benefits, and more of a desire for some EU powers
to be returned.
Most Western Europeans say EU membership has economic benefits
Majorities
in every country but Italy say EU membership has benefited their
country economically. This sentiment is most widespread in Denmark,
Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, where about seven-in-ten or more see
EU membership as a good thing.
Italians are split on how EU
membership has affected their country: 46% say membership has been good
for the economy, while 48% say it has been bad. And nearly one-third
(32%) say they strongly feel EU membership has harmed the Italian
economy.
In every country surveyed, people who hold populist
views are less likely than those in the mainstream to say EU membership
has positively impacted their nation’s economy. In half of the
countries, Left Populists and Right Populists feel similarly about the
institution – despite significant differences among their countries’
Left and Right Mainstream. For example, in the Netherlands, just 52% of
Right Populists say the EU has been good for their economy, as do 55% of
Left Populists and 59% of Center Populists. Among the mainstream in the
Netherlands, much larger majorities see EU membership as an economic
positive: 86% of the Left Mainstream, 81% of the Center Mainstream and
75% of the Right Mainstream say EU membership has benefited their
national economy.
In most countries – France, Italy, the UK, the
Netherlands and Germany – people on the left are more likely than those
on the right to see EU membership as a good thing for the economy. For
example, in Italy and the UK, Left Mainstream respondents are 22
percentage points more likely than the Right Mainstream to say EU
membership has helped their economy. In Spain, however, the left-right
pattern is reversed: For example, the Right Mainstream group (78%) is
somewhat more likely than the Left Mainstream (70%) to see EU membership
as an economic positive.
Most want some EU powers returned to national governments
Despite
widespread belief in most countries that the EU has benefited national
economies, roughly half or more in all countries surveyed say they want
some EU powers returned to national governments. Even in Denmark and the
Netherlands – countries where broad majorities see economic benefits
from the institution – roughly two-thirds say some EU powers should be
returned.
The desire for returning EU powers to individual
countries is most widespread in the UK, where the national government is
currently negotiating an
exit from the EU.
Nearly three-quarters of Brits (73%) say they want to see some powers
returned. Germans and Spaniards are the least likely to favor this type
of change (53% and 49%, respectively).
People who hold populist
views are more likely than those in the mainstream to want more national
sovereignty in seven of the eight countries surveyed. For example, in
France, 68% of Left Populists support EU powers being returned to
national governments, compared with 54% of the Left Mainstream; on the
right, 76% of Right Populists say the same, versus 61% of the Right
Mainstream. The one exception to this pattern is the UK, where populists
and mainstream respondents largely agree on this issue.
Ideology
also plays a role in how people view the division of powers between the
EU and national governments. Across five of the eight countries, those
on the ideological right are significantly more likely than those on the
left to think that powers should be returned to national governments.
For example, British Right Mainstream respondents (82%) are more likely
than the Left Mainstream (59%) to want powers returned to their national
government.
The three countries where those on the right are
not more likely than those on the left to support the return of powers
to national governments are France, Spain and Sweden. In France and
Sweden, those on both sides of the ideological spectrum largely agree on
the issue, while in Spain, the left is more likely than the right to
want powers returned. For example, Spain’s Left Mainstream (56%) are
more likely than those in the Right Mainstream (40%) to think some EU
powers should be returned.
Left-right ideology influences political party support across Western Europe more than populist views
In
most countries, traditional parties are seen in a more favorable light
than populist parties. Public attitudes about parties – whether
traditional or populist – are usually closely related to left-right
ideology.
10
People on the left tend to support parties on the left, while those on
the right tend to favor right-aligned parties. Still, within these
left-right differences, opinions of traditional parties follow a
consistent pattern: People in the mainstream usually have more favorable
views of these parties than people with populist views. Opinions of
populist parties follow the opposite pattern: People with populist views
tend to see the populist parties more favorably than those in the
mainstream.
Traditional parties receive low ratings in France, Italy and Spain
Traditional
parties in Western Europe are seen in relatively favorable terms in
Denmark, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands (see the text box and
Appendix B
for more on how parties are classified). In each of these countries,
half or more of the public has positive opinions of all traditional
parties asked about. For example, a majority of Danes have a favorable
view of the left-leaning traditional party, the Social Democrats (66%),
and the right-leaning Liberal Party (55%).
Categorizing political parties in Western Europe
In
Spain, Italy and France, only minorities rate any of the traditional
parties favorably. In these three countries, about three-in-ten or fewer
have a favorable view of the Socialist Party (PS) and the Republicans
(LR) in France (26% each), the Democratic Party (PD) and Forza Italia in
Italy (30% each) and the Popular Party (PP) in Spain (31%), which is
sometimes called the People’s Party.
11
Only the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) has moderately broad
appeal – yet even then, fewer than half of Spaniards view the party
favorably (44%).
Views of traditional parties heavily colored by ideology
In
all countries surveyed, people on the right tend to have more favorable
opinions of right-aligned traditional parties than people on the left,
and vice versa. This general pattern holds for both people who have
populist views and people in the mainstream. However, to the degree that
respondents with populist sympathies differ from mainstream
respondents, populists tend to give lower favorability ratings to
traditional parties.
One clear example of this pattern occurs in
the Netherlands. A majority of people on the left have a favorable view
of the left-leaning Labor Party (PvdA). Fewer than half of either group
on the right have positive opinions of the party. However, Left
Populists (57% favorable) have a lower opinion of the party than the
Left Mainstream (76%), and the same is true when comparing Center
Populists with the Center Mainstream (44% to 59%, respectively). Right
Populists and the Right Mainstream have similarly negative views of the
left-leaning PvdA (45% and 43%, respectively).
When it comes to
Dutch views of the right-aligned traditional party, the People’s Party
for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the pattern largely reverses. Here,
people on the right tend to have more favorable views of the party than
people on the left – and on the left and right, populists tend to have
lower views of the party than those in the mainstream. For example,
respondents in the Right Mainstream (70%) have a much more favorable
view of the party than those in the Left Mainstream (46%) – but both
mainstream groups have more favorable opinions than their populist
counterparts, with 52% of Right Populists and 29% of Left Populists
expressing favorable opinions, respectively.
12 
Populist parties generally disliked by the public
Across all countries, most populist parties – meaning those that are rated as anti-elitist by experts – are broadly disliked.
13
Only minorities have a favorable view of these parties, ranging from
39% of Italians who have a positive view of the Five Star Movement to
11% of Germans who hold a favorable view of Alternative for Germany
(AfD).
14 For
most of the populist parties on the right that were asked about,
two-thirds or more of the public say they have an unfavorable view of
each party. And, in the case of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) (49%),
the Sweden Democrats (51%), the National Front (FN) in France (53%) and
AfD in Germany (62%), about half or more express very unfavorable views
of the parties.
15 Italy’s
Five Star Movement is relatively well-regarded among populist parties
on the ideological right, receiving the highest favorability of all
parties asked about (39%). But Five Star is also one of the few
right-aligned populist parties that experts do not classify as “radical
right”; rather, the party is relatively centrist in its ideology.
16 Still, more Italians have unfavorable (51%) than favorable views of the party.
The
Danish People’s Party (DPP), which, like Five Star, is relatively more
centrist among right populist parties, is also somewhat more popular
than most right populist parties.
17 Nevertheless, a majority of Danish adults (62%) have unfavorable views of the party.
A
majority of the French and Spanish publics also dislike the
left-aligned populist parties La France Insoumise and Podemos,
respectively. Fully 46% of Spaniards have very unfavorable opinions of
Podemos.
Populist parties receive higher ratings from people with populist views, but many parties still only have minority appeal
Views
of populist parties follow the same general pattern as views of
traditional parties: Whether populists or in the mainstream, people are
more favorable to parties that fall on the same side of the left-right
ideological spectrum as they do. But here the dynamics around populist
views of parties are flipped, in that people with populist sympathies
are more favorable toward these populist parties than are people in the
mainstream.
For example, 44% of Right Populists in Germany have a
favorable opinion of AfD, compared with just 25% of the Right
Mainstream. Both of these right-leaning groups give AfD much higher
ratings than either group on the left – whether Left Populists (8%) or
the Left Mainstream (2%).
The two populist parties on the right
that are somewhat less ideologically extreme – DPP in Denmark and Five
Star in Italy – follow a similar pattern to the other populist parties,
but they each stand out in an important way.
Unlike
most other right populist parties, the DPP is viewed similarly by both
the Right Mainstream and Right Populists in terms of favorability (44%
for both). However, Danish Left Populists feel more favorably toward the
party than the Left Mainstream (28% vs. 19%), as do Center Populists
compared with the Center Mainstream (43% vs. 31%).
Five Star
also has stronger support among those with populist views than among the
mainstream. But, in contrast with most other populist parties, there is
little difference between Left and Right Populists, with 44% and 43%
holding favorable views of Five Star, respectively. In fact, Five Star’s
base of support is strongest among Center Populists (53%).
When
it comes to views of populist parties on the left, they, too, receive
more support from populist groups than mainstream ones. The left
populist La France Insoumise gets its highest favorability ratings from
the Left Populists (68%), although a majority of the Left Mainstream
(57%) also hold a positive opinion of the party. But both of these
ratings stand significantly above those of the right-leaning groups,
where just 24% of Right Populists and 20% of the Right Mainstream
express positive opinions of the party.
But, while populist
parties generally receive more support from those espousing populist
views than those in the mainstream, still, only some receive support
from more than half of people who hold populist views. These include the
left populist parties La France Insoumise and Podemos, which are viewed
favorably by 68% and 54% of Left Populists in their respective
countries. On the right, the Northern League (LN) and the Sweden
Democrats each have majority support among Right Populists in Italy
(59%) and in Sweden (60%), respectively. The Five Star Movement, too, is
favored by 53% of Center Populists in Italy.
In France and Spain, other nontraditional parties are relatively popular
In
France and Spain, newer parties have emerged into the national
political landscapes in more recent years that have achieved relative
electoral success and popularity.
These relatively new parties,
En Marche and Ciudadanos, are more popular than any of the traditional
(or populist) parties in their respective countries, with 43% of the
French holding a positive opinion of En Marche and 51% of Spaniards
saying the same of Ciudadanos.
When
it comes to how these parties are seen, the favorability pattern for
Ciudadanos largely mirrors those of traditional parties. Views of the
Spanish party are mostly driven by left-right ideology, and those in the
mainstream tend to have more favorable opinions of Ciudadanos than
those with populist leanings.
For example, 64% of Right
Populists have positive views of the party, compared with 54% of Center
Populists and only 13% of Left Populists. But the Right Mainstream are
10 percentage points more likely to have a favorable view of the party
than Right Populists (74% vs. 64%), and the Left Mainstream (27%) view
it more favorably than Left Populists (13%).
Views of En Marche,
too, generally follow the traditional party pattern, with people’s
views being shaped, at least in part, by left-right ideology. French
adults on the right are more likely to have a favorable opinion of En
Marche than those on the left; for example, 57% of the Right Mainstream
express a positive view of the party, compared with only 47% of the Left
Mainstream. And people in the mainstream groups are more favorable
toward En Marche than those with populist leanings.
