A ballot drop-off box outside a Los Angeles library on Oct. 5.
A
large majority of voters say it is important for Americans to know who
won the presidential election within a day or two of Election Day. But
just half say they are very or somewhat confident that this will happen,
including nearly identical shares who support Donald Trump and Joe
Biden.
Trump and Biden supporters have deep disagreements over
several other aspects of the election and voting process – including
whether it will be clear which candidate won even after all the votes
are counted. About three-quarters of registered voters who support Biden
(76%) are confident that the country will know the winner of the
presidential election after all the votes are counted, including 30% who
are very confident.
A
much smaller majority of Trump supporters (55%) are confident that
Americans will have a clear sense of who won, with just 13% saying they
are very confident the winner will be clearly known after all the votes
are counted.
The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted
Sept. 30-Oct. 5 among 11,929 U.S. adults, including 10,543 registered
voters, finds that Trump and Biden supporters also have very different
views of the impact of the
coronavirus outbreak
on the safety of voting in the Nov. 3 presidential election. Among all
registered voters, 79% say they are very or somewhat confident that
in-person voting places will be run safely, without spreading the
coronavirus. But just a third are very confident that the coronavirus
will not be spread at in-person voting sites.
Majorities of both
Trump (91%) and Biden supporters (70%) are at least somewhat confident
that in-person voting places will be run safely, without the spread of
the disease. Yet while about half of Trump supporters (53%) are very
confident that COVID-19 will not be spread by in-person voting, just 17%
of Biden supporters say the same.
Trump supporters are more
than twice as likely than Biden supporters to say they plan to cast
their ballots in the presidential election
in person on Election Day
(50% vs. 20%). By contrast, far more Biden than Trump supporters say
they plan to vote – or already have voted – by absentee or mail-in
ballot (51% Biden supporters, compared with 25% of those who back
Trump). Similar shares of Trump and Biden supporters (20% and 22%,
respectively), plan to vote, or have voted, in person before Election
Day.
For the most part, both Trump and Biden supporters are at
least somewhat confident that votes cast in person will be counted as
voters intended. Yet they differ sharply over whether absentee or
mail-in ballots will be counted as voters intended: 77% of Biden
supporters are very or somewhat confident, compared with fewer than half
as many Trump supporters (36%).
Trump supporters also are more
skeptical about whether mail-in ballots will be delivered in time to be
counted. Only a third of Trump supporters are very or somewhat confident
that ballots sent by mail will be delivered in enough time to be
counted; that compares with 67% of Biden supporters who express
confidence that mail ballots will be delivered in time.
The new
survey finds that while large majorities of voters think that the
elections in their community will be run and administered very or
somewhat well, they are less confident in the administration of
elections throughout the country. And voters’ confidence in elections in
the United States has declined since 2018 – with most of the change
coming among voters who supported Republican candidates then and Trump
today.
Currently,
90% of registered voters say they are very (44%) or somewhat confident
(46%) that elections in their community will be run and administered
very or somewhat well. But a smaller majority (62%) expects that
elections in the U.S. will be administered well.
Voters were more positive in views of election administration
shortly before the 2018 midterm elections.
In October 2018, about nine-in-ten said they expected elections in
their community (92%) and in the U.S. (81%) to be run and administered
very or somewhat well.
In the current survey, large majorities
of Biden (94%) and Trump supporters (88%) say elections will be
administered well in their communities, though there are much wider
disparities in views of the administration of elections across the
country. While 72% of Biden supporters say the elections around the
nation will be run and administered well, just half of Trump supporters
say the same.
Other findings from the survey
Rise in share
of Biden supporters who say it will be “easy” to vote. Among registered
voters, a majority of Biden supporters (62%) now expect it will be easy
to vote, compared with 38% who say it will be difficult. That represents
a major shift in opinion since
August,
when just 40% of Biden supporters said it would be easy to vote. There
has been less change among Trump supporters; 70% say it will be easy to
vote today, up from 64% in August. Still, voters remain less likely to
say voting will be easy than they were on the eve of the 2018 midterms.
Sharp
divide between Trump, Biden supporters over importance of preventing
those ineligible to vote from casting ballots. Barring people who are
ineligible to vote from voting is much more important priority for Trump
than Biden supporters. While majorities of both candidates’ supporters
view this as very or somewhat important, 86% of Trump supporters view
this as very important, compared with 49% of Biden supporters. And a far
lower share of voters who support Trump (36%) than Biden supporters
(86%) are very or somewhat confident that those ineligible to vote will
not be allowed to cast ballots.
Majority
of voters are confident election systems are secure from technological
threats. Overall, 56% of voters say they are very or somewhat confident
that election systems in the U.S. are secure from hacking and other
technological threats. That is higher than the share of voters who said
this two years ago (47%). Democratic voters, in particular, have become
more confident; the share of Biden supporters who are confident election
systems are secure from technological threats is 19 percentage points
higher today when compared with supporters of Democratic congressional
candidates in the 2018 midterms (53% now, 34% then). There has been less
change among those backing GOP candidates in 2018 and Trump supporters
today (60% now, 65% then).
Widespread agreement on importance of ensuring that people who are legally qualified to vote are able to cast ballots
Voters
are in broad agreement about the importance of ensuring that all people
who are legally qualified and want to vote are able to cast their
ballots: Nearly all registered voters (99%) say this is at least
somewhat important, including 92% who say it is very important. Sizable
majorities of voters (84%) also say it is at least somewhat important
that people who are not legally qualified to vote are prevented from
voting, though fewer say this is very important (65%).
With the
expectation that a far larger share of voters will cast their ballots by
mail than in past elections comes the prospect that
counting those ballots may take substantially longer than in past years.
But about half of registered voters (52%) say it is very important that
Americans know who won the election with a day or two of Election Day,
and 82% say this is at least somewhat important.
Virtually all
Trump and Biden supporters (99% each) say it is at least somewhat
important that all voters who are qualified and want to vote are able to
cast their ballots in the election, and at least nine-in-ten in both
coalitions say this is very important.
By
contrast, there is far less uniformity when it comes to the importance
of people who are ineligible to vote being prevented from voting. While
clear majorities of both coalitions say this is at least somewhat
important (93% of Trump supporters, 78% of Biden voters), Trump
supporters are much more likely to consider this very important: 86% say
this, compared with about half (49%) of Biden backers.
Trump
supporters also are substantially more likely than Biden supporters to
say that knowing the winner of the election within a few days is
important. More than nine-in-ten Trump supporters (94%) say it is at
least somewhat important that the winner of the election be known within
a day or two of the polls closing, including 69% who say this is very
important. While most Biden supporters (73%) say this at least somewhat
important, only 39% say it is very important.
Most voters are at least somewhat confident that polling places will be run safely without spreading the coronavirus
Wide
majorities of American voters express confidence that those who are
legally qualified to vote will be able to do so and that polling places
will safely be run without spreading the coronavirus. But there is
considerably less confidence that the winner of the election will be
known within a few days of Election Day and that mail ballots will
arrive in time to be counted.
More than eight-in-ten registered
voters (84%) say they are at least somewhat confident that people who
are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to cast a ballot,
while nearly as many (79%) express confidence that in-person polling
places will be run safely and without spreading the coronavirus. About
two-thirds (66%) say they are at least somewhat confident that after all
votes are counted, it will be clear who won the election, while 62% are
at least somewhat confident that people who are not legally qualified
to vote will be prevented from casting ballots.
While most
voters express at least some confidence in these four aspects of the
presidential election, relatively small shares are very confident of
each. For example, only about four-in-ten say they are very confident
that people who are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to
cast a ballot in the election, while only 22% say they are very
confident that once the votes are counted it will be clear who won the
election.
Voters
are less confident that the nation will know the outcome of the
election within a few days of Nov. 3 or that mail-in ballots will be
delivered in time to be counted, with about half saying they are at
least somewhat confident these will happen (50% and 52%, respectively).
Just 13% of voters say they are very confident mail ballots will be
delivered on time, while a similarly slim share (15%) say they are very
confident the winner will be known within a day or two of Election Day.
There are sizable gaps in confidence between Trump and Biden voters in these expectations for the election.
Though
majorities of Trump and Biden voters say they are at least somewhat
confident that people who are legally qualified and want to vote are
able to cast a ballot, Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to
say this (93% vs. 77%, respectively). And while only about a third of
Biden supporters (32%) are very confident that people who want to vote
will be able to, half of Trump voters have a high level of confidence
this will occur.
Trump supporters are also far more confident
than Biden voters about the safety of in-person polling places: 91% of
Trump voters are at least somewhat confident that in-person polling
places will be run safely without spreading the coronavirus, including
53% who are very confident. Seven-in-ten Biden voters say they are at
least somewhat confident this will happen, but just 17% are very
confident.
In contrast, Biden supporters are more confident than
Trump backers that once votes have been counted in the election, it
will be clear which candidate won. About three-quarters (76%) of Biden
supporters are at least somewhat confident that this will happen,
compared with 55% of Trump supporters.
Biden supporters also are
considerably more confident than Trump supporters that mail ballots
will be delivered in time to be counted. About two-thirds (67%) of Biden
supporters are very or somewhat confident mail ballots will be
delivered in time to be counted; just a third of Trump supporters say
the same.
The biggest difference between Trump and Biden
supporters across the six items is on whether people who are not legally
qualified to vote will be prevented from casting ballots: 84% of Biden
voters say they are least somewhat confident ineligible voters will be
prevented from voting, including four-in-ten who say they are very
confident about this. In contrast, just 35% of Trump supporters say they
are at least somewhat confident that those who are not legally
qualified to vote will be prevented from casting ballots.
Notably,
there are no significant differences between Trump and Biden supporters
in their expectations about knowing the election result shortly after
Election Day. Among both groups of voters, about half are confident that
Americans will know the winner of the presidential contest within a day
or two of Election Day. Just 16% of Trump supporters and 15% of Biden
supporters are very confident the results will be finalized within days
after Nov. 3.
Biden and Trump backers’ priorities, expectations about voter access
Trump
supporters overwhelmingly say it is very important that ineligible
voters are prevented from casting ballots in the presidential election,
yet far fewer are confident that this will happen: 93% say it is at
least somewhat important (including 86% who say this is very important),
but only about a third (35%) say they are confident that ineligible
voters will be prevented from voting this year.
Among
Biden supporters, in contrast, more than eight-in-ten (84%) say they
are at least somewhat confident that ineligible voters will be prevented
from voting – modestly larger than the 78% who say this is at least
somewhat important.
Conversely, although about three-quarters of
Biden voters say they are at least somewhat confident that all voters
who are legally qualified and want to vote will be able to cast a
ballot, nearly all (99%) say it is important that they be able to do so.
Among Trump supporters, more than nine-in-ten say both that they are
confident that all eligible voters will be able to cast ballots (93%)
and that this is important (99%).
Among Biden supporters, White
voters are somewhat more likely than Black and Hispanic voters to say it
is “very” important that all eligible voters be allowed to vote (96% of
White Biden supporters say this, compared with 86% of Black Biden
supporters and 90% of Hispanic Biden supporters) and are somewhat less
likely to say they are very confident that this will be the case (25% of
White Biden supporters vs. 45% of Black and 37% of Hispanic Biden
backers).
Overall,
the share of voters who say it is important for Americans to know who
won the election within a day or two of Election Day (82%) is
substantially larger than the share who say they are confident this will
happen (50%). These gaps are present among both Trump supporters and
Biden supporters, though they are wider among Trump supporters.
Nearly
all Trump supporters (94%) say it is at least somewhat important to
learn the results of the election quickly, while about three-quarters
(73%) of Biden voters say the same. Only about half (48%) of Trump and
Biden supporters (50%) say they are at least somewhat confident this
will happen.
Fewer now say elections across the country will be run and administered well than in 2018
Voters
largely think that elections in their area will be run well this year.
Fully nine-in-ten registered voters (90%) say that elections in their
communities will be run and administered very or somewhat well, little
different than the share saying this in the weeks before the 2018
midterm election.
But
a narrower majority of voters – 62% – say that elections across the
country will be run and administered very or somewhat well this year; 19
percentage points lower than the share saying this before the 2018
midterms (81%).
In 2018, nearly nine-in-ten voters who supported
or leaned toward a Republican candidate for the House of
Representatives (87%) said that elections in the U.S. would be run and
administered very or somewhat well. Today, 50% of voters who support or
lean toward Donald Trump say this, and just 9% say elections in the U.S.
will be administered very well.
In contrast, 72% of Biden
supporters now say elections around the country will be run and
administered at least somewhat well, only modestly lower than the 79% of
Democratic voters in 2018 who said this.
There
are only modest differences in these views across racial and ethnic
groups, with about eight-in-ten or more White (92%), Black (89%) and
Hispanic voters (84%) saying that elections in their community will be
administered very or somewhat well this November. However, White voters
are slightly less likely than either Black voters or Hispanic voters to
say that elections across the country will be run and administered well.
About two-thirds of Hispanic voters (66%) and a similar share of Black
voters (64%) say elections in the U.S. will be administered somewhat or
very well this November, with about two-in-ten in both groups saying
they will be administered very well. Among White voters, 61% say
elections across the country will be administered at least somewhat
well, including 13% who say they will be administered very well.
Older
voters are more likely than younger voters to say that the November
elections will be administered well, both in their communities and in
the country as a whole. More than nine-in-ten voters ages 65 and older
(94%) say that the elections in their communities will be administered
somewhat or very well, compared with 83% of voters ages 18 to 29. And
about two-thirds of voters 65 and older (68%) say elections across the
U.S. this November will be administered somewhat or very well, compared
with 56% of those ages 18 to 29 and 57% of those 30 to 49.
Voters overwhelmingly confident in counting of votes cast in person, but are less confident about votes cast by mail
About
nine-in-ten registered voters (91%) are at least somewhat confident
that votes cast in person at polling places around the country will be
counted as voters intended. This includes nearly half of voters (49%)
who are very confident of this. Just 9% of registered voters say they
are either not too confident (7%) or not at all confident (2%) that
votes cast in person will be counted as intended.
A smaller
majority of voters, 59%, say they are at least somewhat confident that
votes cast by absentee or mail-in ballot will be counted as voters
intended, including 20% who are very confident. About a quarter (26%)
say they are not too confident that votes cast by mail will be counted
as intended and 14% say they are not at all confident.
When it
comes to votes cast in person, large majorities of both candidates’
supporters express confidence in a fair vote count. Nine-in-ten Biden
voters say they are very confident that these votes will be counted as
intended, as do 92% of Trump voters.
Most Biden supporters also
express confidence that votes cast by absentee or mail-in ballot will be
counted as intended: More than three-quarters (77%) say they are
somewhat (47%) or very confident (30%). By comparison, 36% of Trump
supporters say they are somewhat or very confident these votes will be
counted as voters intended. And Trump backers are more than twice as
likely to say they are not at all confident of this as they are to say
they are very confident.
Among Trump voters, there is little
difference between strong and moderate supporters in confidence in the
in-person vote count. However, those who say they support Trump
moderately or lean toward Trump are almost twice as likely to express
confidence in the mail-in ballot count as those who say they support
Trump strongly: 54% of moderate Trump supporters and Trump leaners say
they are very or somewhat confident that absentee and mail-in votes will
be counted as intended, compared with just 28% of strong Trump
supporters.
There also are differences in views of how mail
votes are counted between voters who support Biden strongly and those
who back him less strongly. Strong Biden supporters are 14 percentage
points more likely than moderate Biden supporters to say they are very
or somewhat confident in how mail-in votes will be counted (83% vs.
69%).
Overall,
a majority of registered voters (57%) say they are at least somewhat
confident that both in-person and mail-in ballots will be counted as
voters intended. One-third say they are confident in how in-person
ballots will be counted but not how mail-in ballots will be counted.
Among
Trump supporters, just over a third (36%) say they have confidence in
how both types of ballots will be counted, compared with a majority
(56%) who say they have confidence in in-person ballots but not mail-in
ballots.
Among Biden voters, three-quarters say they are confident that both types of ballots will be counted as voters intended.
About
eight-in-ten voters who plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot (or
who have already done so) say they are somewhat or very confident that
these ballots will be counted as voters intend. This includes nearly
two-thirds of Trump voters (65%) and 86% of Biden voters who plan to
vote this way.
Fewer than half of voters who plan to vote or
have voted in person (45%) say they are somewhat or very confident in
the counting of mail-in ballots. About seven-in-ten Biden voters (71%)
and just a quarter of Trump supporters who plan to vote in person say
this.
White voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters express
similar levels of confidence in the counting of mail-in ballots.
However, White voters are sharply divided by candidate preference, with
White Biden supporters 50 percentage points more likely than White Trump
supporters to say they are somewhat or very confident that these votes
will be counted as voters intended. Among Biden supporters, 84% of White
voters say they are somewhat or very confident, compared with
seven-in-ten Hispanic voters and six-in-ten Black voters.
Registered
voters ages 65 and older, regardless of candidate preference, are more
likely than others to say they are somewhat or very confident that
mail-in ballots will be counted as voters intend.
Voters
who live in states with the strictest requirements for voting by mail
are less likely than those who live in states where absentee or mail-in
ballots are more widely available to say that they are confident in how
mail-in ballots will be counted. (
See Appendix for details.)
Half
of voters living in states where an excuse is required to vote by
absentee or mail-in ballot say they are somewhat or very confident that
votes cast by mail will be counted as voters intended. That rises to
about six-in-ten among voters living in states where no excuse is
required (59%) and among voters in states where all registered voters
are sent an application to vote by mail (62%). Nearly two-thirds of
voters living in states where all registered voters receive a ballot by
mail (66%) say they are confident that votes cast by mail-in ballot will
be counted as voters intended.
Among Biden voters, those living
in states where all voters will be mailed a ballot are 9 percentage
points more likely than those living in states where an excuse is
required to vote by mail to say they are somewhat or very confident in
the counting of ballots cast by mail. Among Trump supporters, this gap
is 15 points.
Voters are less concerned over hacking and other technological threats to the election compared with 2018
A
majority of registered voters (56%) say they are somewhat (47%) or very
(9%) confident that election systems in the U.S. are secure from
hacking and other technological threats. About three-in-ten (31%) say
they are not too confident that election systems are secure, while 13%
say they are not at all confident.
Majorities of both Trump
voters and Biden voters say they are somewhat or very confident that
election systems are secure, though Trump supporters are slightly more
likely to say this than Biden supporters (60% vs. 53%). Roughly
one-in-ten Trump voters and a similar share of Biden voters (8%) say
they are very confident. And nearly identical shares of Trump voters
(12%) and Biden voters (13%) say they are not at all confident that U.S.
election systems are secure from technological threats.
The
share of registered voters who say they are confident in the security of
election systems has increased since just before the 2018 general
election, when 47% of registered voters said they were somewhat (38%) or
very (9%) confident.
Among voters who planned to vote for a
Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives in 2018, about
one-third (34%) said they were somewhat or very confident that election
systems were secure. Nearly two-thirds of voters who planned to vote for
a Republican candidate for the House (65%) said this.
Today,
about two-thirds of registered voters (65%) say they expect voting in
this November’s elections to be easy, while 35% say it will be
difficult. The share of voters who expect voting to be easy is 14
percentage points higher than it was two months ago, when half said they
expected voting to be easy (50%), while roughly as many (49%) said it
would be difficult. Still, the share of voters expecting voting to be
easy remains significantly lower than it was at this time in the 2018
election (65% today, 85% then).
The rise in the share of voters
saying voting will be easy since August is largely attributable to
shifting views among Biden voters. In August, more Biden voters said
that voting would be difficult (60%) than easy (40%). Today, 62% of
Biden voters say they expect voting will be easy.
A slightly
larger share of Trump supporters also say they expect voting will be
easy compared with August (70% today vs. 64% then).
While
the shares of voters who expect voting to be easy has increased across
most all demographic subgroups since August, there are still sizable
gaps in perceptions of the voting process by age and race.
About
two-thirds of White voters (68%) say they expect voting will be very or
somewhat easy, including a third who say they expect voting will be
very easy.
Black and Hispanic voters are less likely than White voters to say the voting process will be easy (55% and 60%, respectively).
Younger
voters – especially those under 30 – are also less likely than their
older counterparts to expect voting will be easy: 55% of voters ages 18
to 29 say voting will be easy, while over two-thirds of voters 30 and
older say the same.
When it comes to meeting several legal
requirements to vote – including being registered in time to vote,
having the proper type of picture identification or signature match on
file for mail ballots – the vast majority of voters say they are very
confident that they will meet these requirements (94%). This includes
95% of Trump voters, and a similar share of Biden voters (94%). However,
Black (91%) and Hispanic voters (88%) are modestly less likely than
White voters (96%) to say they are very confident they will meet these
requirements.
Voters cast ballots early at the registration and elections office in Columbia, South Carolina, on Oct. 6, 2020.
