יום רביעי, 27 בדצמבר 2023

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine


Rubén Weinsteiner



President Joe Biden has shifted from promising the U.S. would back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” to saying the U.S. will provide support “as long as we can” and contending that Ukraine has won “an enormous victory already. | Evan Vucci/AP


With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country. But along with the Ukrainians themselves, U.S. and European officials are now discussing the redeployment of Kyiv’s forces away from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive into a stronger defensive position against Russian forces in the east, according to the administration official and the European diplomat, and confirmed by a senior administration official. This effort has also involved bolstering air defense systems and building fortifications, razor wire obstructions and anti-tank obstacles and ditches along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, these officials say. In addition, the Biden administration is focused on rapidly resurrecting Ukraine’s own defense industry to supply the desperately needed weaponry the U.S. Congress is balking at replacing.

The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. “That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.


For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow.

“Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely.


In an interview on Dec. 21, John Kirby, head of strategic communications at the National Security Council, said that with Washington “nearing the end of our ability” to provide military assistance to the Ukrainians because Republicans have blocked Biden’s request for roughly $60 billion more in aid, the Biden administration is “very much focused on helping them on offense and defense.”

“We are having literally daily conversations with the Ukrainians about the battlefield, about what their needs are and their intentions,” Kirby said. But he added: “I’m not going to telegraph to the Russians what the Ukrainian strategy is in the coming months.”

At his year-end news conference in early December, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was preparing new proposals to end the war but he added that he would not alter his insistence that Russia withdraw all forces. Kirby reaffirmed the administration line that “we are not dictating terms to President Zelenskyy.” Instead, he said, the White House is helping Zelenskyy to “operationalize” his own peace proposal “with interlocutors around the world.”

Over the past year — with U.S. military support flagging fast on Capitol Hill and Zelenskyy’s once-vaunted counteroffensive failing since it was launched in June — Biden has shifted from promising the U.S. would back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” to saying the U.S. will provide support “as long as we can” and contending that Ukraine has won “an enormous victory already. Putin has failed.”

Some analysts believe that is code for: Get ready to declare a partial victory and find a way to at least a truce or ceasefire with Moscow, one that would leave Ukraine partially divided.

“Biden’s victory comment has the virtue of being true,” said George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA who is now head of strategy for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. But “time has become a stark disadvantage when it comes to Ukraine’s manpower and industrial capacity, and that’s true even if the West continues its support. The longer this goes on the more we’re going to have to concede up front just to get the Russians to the negotiating table.”


A shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Putin into an acceptable compromise. “It’s very likely that going to a defensive posture would allow the Ukrainians to conserve resources while making future Russian progress look unlikely,” said Anthony Pfaff, an intelligence expert at the U.S. Army War College who co-authored a study that anticipated Putin’s Ukraine invasion years before it happened.

The European diplomat based in Washington said that the European Union is also raising the threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO to “put the Ukrainians in the best situation possible to negotiate” with Moscow.

That is a flashpoint for Putin, who is believed to be mainly interested in a strategic deal with Washington under which Ukraine will not enter NATO. The Biden administration continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated. “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby.

The two militaries remain largely stalemated but Putin may now be signaling that he’s willing to compromise if he’s allowed to keep the approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory that he partially controls in the east, The New York Times reported last week. Asked to respond to that report, the administration spokesperson said: “I’m not aware of any serious discussions at this point.”


This is not the only major front on which Biden is trying to end a war — and avoid bad headlines in an election year. In the Mideast, the administration is engaged in a frenzied series of diplomatic visits to Israel — most recently last week by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown — to prevent the Israelis from causing a greater humanitarian disaster in Gaza and escalating into a wider war against Hezbollah, which is becoming a real possibility and could inflame the entire region. Polls show that Biden’s earlier pledge of unlimited support for Israel’s retaliation is costing him support, especially among his progressive Democratic base.

“We don’t want to see a second front” against Hezbollah, said Kirby.

Foreign policy wasn’t expected to play a major role in the 2024 campaign — especially as inflation surged in the first two years of Biden’s term and economists last year predicted a recession. The U.S. economy will still likely be the main issue, polls show, and a new memo says the central theme of Biden’s campaign will be “protecting American democracy.” But with inflation fast retreating — dropping from more than 9.1 percent a year ago to close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent now — and the economy closer to achieving a highly unusual “soft landing,” the calculus of what could affect voting in 2024 may be changing, says Bruce Jentleson, a scholar of the presidency at Duke University. Biden is still suffering low approval ratings that Gallup has called “the worst of any modern-day president heading into a tough reelection campaign” — and his handling of foreign affairs in general and Israel and Ukraine in particular have recently become factors in that assessment.

As a result, multiplying crises abroad could imperil the president in the voting booth, says Jentleson, a former adviser to Vice President Al Gore. “What often happens is you get a bank shot where voters look at how you do foreign policy. They don’t care about the issues per se but they want to see leadership.”

Trump, the leading Republican contender, is already exploiting the perception that events overseas are spinning out of control. In his uniquely brazen way, the former president quoted the increasingly autocratic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (Trump called him “highly respected”), a Putin sympathizer, as saying that Trump “is the man who can save the Western world.”


Trump touted Orban’s praise at the University of New Hampshire two weeks ago, telling the crowd, “[Orban] said it would have been very different, and there was no way that Russia … would have invaded Ukraine. It would not be possible for Russians to do that if President Trump were president, it wouldn’t have happened. … And you know what else wouldn’t have happened? The attack on Israel wouldn’t have happened.”

Asked to respond to that statement and others recently made by Trump — including one in which he favorably quoted Putin — Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said in a statement to POLITICO Magazine: “Voters will face a clear choice in this election between President Biden’s strong leadership on the world stage, including his work to unite our allies and defend democracy at home and abroad, and Donald Trump’s record of praising dictators and terrorists. Americans want a president they can trust, not an erratic extremist — and that’s why they’ll reject Donald Trump once again next November.”

Still, Biden faces political peril if the war goes badly for the Ukrainians. Even if Republicans on the Hill are mainly responsible for holding up military aid, that won’t help Biden much politically if Putin starts to regain the battlefield advantage next year, after the nearly $100 billion Biden’s already put into stopping Russia. For most of the conflict GOP critics have accused Biden of moving too slowly to arm the Ukrainians with the most sophisticated weaponry, such as M1A1 Abrams battle tanks, long-range precision artillery and F-16 fighter jets. In an interview in July Zelenskyy himself said the delays “provided Russia with time to mine all our lands and build several lines of defense.” The ongoing Ukraine crisis also resurrects Trump’s old critique of NATO and the underspending Europeans. According to a NATO report from earlier this year, Europe’s largest economies all fell short of a common goal of spending 2 percent of economic output on defense.

Putin could be helped further in Europe by recent election victories for more of his far-right sympathizers, including Robert Fico in Slovakia and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, both of whom might join Orban in blocking a proposed 50 billion euro ($54.9 billion) aid package.

The Ukrainians themselves are engaged in what is becoming a very public debate about how long they can hold out against Putin. With Ukraine running low on troops as well as weapons, Zelenskyy’s refusal to consider any fresh negotiations with Moscow is looking more and more politically untenable at home. The Ukrainian president, seeking to draft another half million troops, is facing rising domestic opposition from his military commander in chief, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko.


The senior Biden administration official told POLITICO Magazine that all these factors — the resistance in Congress and Ukraine’s internal politics — were playing into the new discussions with Kyiv about redeploying toward a defensive posture. “The other wild card is how much the weather is going to be a factor. As they decide how they’re going to posture themselves in the next two to three months, it’s going to become physically harder to operate and go on the offensive.”

One problem, of course, is that Putin understands these stakes all too well — especially given the surging poll numbers for Trump, who has suggested both that he’d swiftly cut a deal with Russia over Ukraine and order the U.S. to depart from, or at least downgrade, NATO. Militarily, the biggest concern may be that Putin could go on the offensive in the spring with major air support that he’s avoided until now but could deploy as Ukraine runs low on defensive missiles. Politically, the worry is that Putin won’t go near a negotiation until he sees who the next U.S. president is.

In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, said the Russians had an “activity plan until 2025,” and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if arms supplies from Western countries were to end.

In the end, said Kirby, it is Putin who must make the first move — and the Russian president hasn’t done anything like that yet. “While we all would like to see this war end immediately,” Kirby said, Putin “has shown no indication of entering into good faith negotiations.”
 
Rubén Weinsteiner

יום שלישי, 19 בדצמבר 2023

Teens, Social Media and Technology 2023

 


Rubén Weinsteiner

YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram remain the most widely used online platforms among U.S. teens


Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand teens’ use of digital devices, social media and other online platforms.

The Center conducted an online survey of 1,453 U.S. teens from Sept. 26 to Oct. 23, 2023, through Ipsos. Ipsos recruited the teens via their parents, who were part of its KnowledgePanel. The KnowledgePanel is a probability-based web panel recruited primarily through national, random sampling of residential addresses. The survey was weighted to be representative of U.S. teens ages 13 to 17 who live with their parents by age, gender, race and ethnicity, household income, and other categories.

This research was reviewed and approved by an external institutional review board (IRB), Advarra, an independent committee of experts specializing in helping to protect the rights of research participants.


Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology­­­.

A note on terminology: Our September-October 2023 survey asked about “Twitter (recently renamed to ‘X’).” The terms Twitter and X are both used in this report to refer to the same platform.

Despite negative headlines and growing concerns about social media’s impact on youth, teens continue to use these platforms at high rates – with some describing their social media use as “almost constant,” according to a new Pew Research Center survey of U.S. teens.

The survey – conducted Sept. 26-Oct. 23, 2023, among 1,453 13- to 17-year-olds – covered social media, internet use and device ownership among teens.

Here’s a look at the key findings related to online platforms:

YouTube continues to dominate. Roughly nine-in-ten teens say they use YouTube, making it the most widely used platform measured in our survey.

TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram remain popular among teens: Majorities of teens ages 13 to 17 say they use TikTok (63%), Snapchat (60%) and Instagram (59%). For older teens ages 15 to 17, these shares are about seven-in-ten.

Teens are less likely to be using Facebook and Twitter (recently renamed X) than they were a decade ago: Facebook once dominated the social media landscape among America’s youth, but the share of teens who use the site has dropped from 71% in 2014-2015 to 33% today. Twitter, which was renamed X in July 2023, has also seen its teen user base shrink during the past decade – albeit at a less steep decline than Facebook.

Teens’ site and app usage has changed little in the past year. The share of teens using these platforms has remained relatively stable since spring 2022, when the Center last surveyed on these topics. For example, the percentage of teens who use TikTok is statistically unchanged since last year.

And for the first time, we asked teens about using BeReal: 13% report using this app.


In addition to asking teens about the types of platforms they use, we also asked them how often they use five specific platforms: YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, Instagram and Facebook.

YouTube, the most widely used platform measured in the survey, is also frequently visited by its users. About seven-in-ten teens say they visit the video-sharing platform daily, including 16% who report being on the site almost constantly.

At the same time, 58% of teens are daily users of TikTok. This includes 17% who describe their TikTok use as almost constant.

About half of teens use Snapchat and Instagram daily. A somewhat larger share reports using Snapchat almost constantly compared with Instagram (14% vs. 8%).

Far fewer teens say they use Facebook on a daily basis (19%), with only 3% saying they are on the site almost constantly.

Taken together, a third of teens use at least one of these five sites almost constantly – which is similar to what we found last year.
By gender

Teen girls are more likely than boys to say they almost constantly use TikTok (22% vs. 12%) and Snapchat (17% vs. 12%).

But there are little to no differences in the shares of boys and girls who report almost constantly using YouTube, Instagram and Facebook.
By race and ethnicity

We also see differences by race and ethnicity in how much time teens report spending on these platforms.

Larger shares of Black and Hispanic teens report being on YouTube, Instagram and TikTok almost constantly, compared with a smaller share of White teens who say the same.1

Hispanic teens stand out in TikTok and Snapchat use. For instance, 32% of Hispanic teens say they are on TikTok almost constantly, compared with 20% of Black teens and 10% of White teens.
How use of online platforms differs across demographic groups

While some sites are commonly used among all teens, there are some differences by gender, race and ethnicity, age, and household income.
By gender

Teen girls are more likely than teen boys to say they use Instagram (66% vs. 53%). BeReal, TikTok, Snapchat and Facebook also are more commonly used by teen girls.

On the other hand, teen boys are more likely than teen girls to use Discord (34% vs. 22%) and Twitch (22% vs. 11%). Similarly, a larger share of boys than girls use Reddit and YouTube.
By race and ethnicity

Eight-in-ten Black teens report using TikTok, compared with 70% of Hispanic teens and 57% of White teens. Racial and ethnic gaps are also present in use of Twitter: Black teens are more likely than Hispanic or White teens to be Twitter users.

When it comes to WhatsApp, Hispanic teens are more likely than Black or White teens to say they use the messaging platform.

BeReal is the only platform asked about that White teens are more likely to use than Black or Hispanic teens.
By age

Older teens are more likely than younger teens to use many of the platforms asked about, including Instagram, Snapchat, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok and Reddit. For example, while 68% of teens ages 15 to 17 say they use Instagram, this share drops to 45% among teens ages 13 and 14.
By household income

While fewer teens overall are using Facebook, our surveys consistently show that usage remains higher among teens in lower-income households. For example, 45% of teens in households earning less than $30,000 a year say they use Facebook, compared with 27% of those whose annual household income is $75,000 or more.

Income gaps are also present in TikTok use: Larger shares of teens in lower-income households are users compared with those in the highest-income households (71% vs. 61%).

In comparison, BeReal is more commonly used among teens in households earning $75,000 or more a year. Some 16% of teens in this category say they use this app, compared with about one-in-ten whose annual household income falls below $75,000.
How much time are teens spending online?

In addition to asking teens about their social media use, we also examined the amount of time they report spending online.

Nearly half of teens say they use the internet “almost constantly.” This is on par with what we found last year, but roughly double the 24% who said this in the 2014-2015 survey.

Overall, more than nine-in-ten say they use the internet at least daily.
By race and ethnicity

As was true in previous Center surveys, the amount of time teens report spending online varies by race and ethnicity.

While 55% of Hispanic and 54% of Black teens report being on the internet almost constantly, the share drops to 38% among White teens.
By age

Older teens ages 15 to 17 are somewhat more likely than younger teens to be near-constant internet users (50% vs. 40%).
Device usage: Smartphones, computers, gaming consoles and tablets

Today’s teens have several ways to go online, connect with others and find information.

Our survey finds that most teens have or have access to a smartphone (95%), a desktop or laptop computer (90%), or a gaming console (83%). A smaller share – though still a 65% majority – say the same for tablets.
By household income

Smartphone ownership is nearly universal among teens of different genders, ages, races and ethnicities, and economic backgrounds. But having access to a home computer remains less common for those in lower-income households.

Roughly seven-in-ten teens living in households earning less than $30,000 a year (72%) say they have access to a home computer. That share rises among those whose annual household income is $30,000 to $74,999 (87%) or $75,000 and above (94%).

Tablet ownership is also less common among teens in lower-income households: 57% say they have access to a tablet at home, compared with 67% of those living in the highest-income households.
By gender

Most teen boys and girls report having access to a game console at home, but more boys say this than girls (91% vs. 75%). 

 

Rubén Weinsteiner

יום שני, 11 בדצמבר 2023

Americans' Views of the Israel-Hamas War



Rubén Weinstener

Bipartisan concern about violence against Jews in U.S.; wide partisan gap in concerns over violence against U.S. Muslims


Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand Americans’ views of the current war between Israel and Hamas. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,203 adults from Nov. 27 to Dec. 3, 2023. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories.

As the war between Hamas and Israel continues with no end in sight, far more Americans (65%) say Hamas bears a lot of responsibility for the current conflict than say that about the Israeli government (35%).

Much smaller shares of Americans say the Palestinian people (20%) and the Israeli people (13%) have a lot of responsibility for the war.

A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 3 among 5,203 adults, finds sizable partisan and age differences on these questions, as well as about many other aspects of the two-month-old war: Majorities of both Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (73%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (62%) say Hamas has a lot of responsibility for the conflict. But Democrats (50%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (21%) to say the Israeli government bears a lot of responsibility.
About half of adults ages 18 to 29 (46%) say Hamas has a lot of responsibility for the war. That compares with majorities of 60% or more among older age groups. (Explore this further in chapter 1.)

Related: About half of Republicans now say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine

The war between Israel and Hamas has spurred a number of concerns among Americans, including the possibility of a wider regional conflict and terror attacks in this country:
Bipartisan concern over violence against Jews in the U.S.

Nearly half of Americans (48%) say that when thinking about the war, they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jewish people in the United States.

Another 31% say they are somewhat concerned about this; just 19% have little or no concern about increasing violence against American Jews.

Nearly identical shares of Democrats (49%) and Republicans (48%) say they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of increasing violence against Jews in this country.
Democrats more likely than Republicans to express concern about increased violence against U.S. Muslims

About half of Democrats (53%) say they are extremely or very concerned about the possibility that violence against Muslims in the U.S. will increase, compared with 22% of Republicans.

While about half of Republicans (53%) say they are at least somewhat concerned about the prospect of rising violence against Muslims in the U.S., 46% say they are not too concerned or not at all concerned about this. That compares with 15% of Democrats. (Explore this further in chapter 2.)
Biden administration’s response to Israel-Hamas war viewed more negatively than positively

Roughly a third of adults (35%) approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, while 41% disapprove and 24% are not sure. Republicans disapprove of the administration’s response by about two-to-one (51% disapprove, 28% approve). Democrats are more divided: 44% approve of the administration’s response, 33% disapprove and 22% are not sure.
Adults under age 30 are particularly disapproving of the administration’s response to the conflict. Just 19% approve, while 46% disapprove. The administration’s response is viewed less negatively among older age groups.

Americans generally differ over whether President Joe Biden is striking the right balance in dealing with the Israelis and Palestinians (25%), favoring the Israelis too much (21%), or favoring the Palestinians too much (16%). Nearly four-in-ten adults say they are not sure how Biden is handling this. (Explore this further in chapter 3.)
Public is divided in views of Israel’s military operation against Hamas

Americans also differ over Israel’s ongoing military operation against Hamas, with nearly a third (32%) not sure.

About a quarter (27%) say Israel is going too far in its current military operation, while about as many (25%) say it is taking the right approach; 16% of Americans say Israel is not going far enough militarily.

More than four-in-ten Democrats (45%) say Israel is going too far in its military operation against Hamas, compared with 12% of Republicans.

There also are age differences in these opinions, with younger Americans more likely than older age groups to say Israel is going too far.
Other important findings

About half of Americans say a two-state solution is still possible in the future. Currently, 52% say that, in the future, a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully; 45% say this is not possible. Democrats (62%) are more likely than Republicans (43%) to say that a peaceful, two-state arrangement is possible.

About a quarter of Americans (26%) are following the Israel-Hamas war extremely or very closely. Another 37% say they are following news about the war somewhat closely, while 36% are following not too or not at all closely.

As with most international news events, younger adults are following developments in the conflict less closely than are older people. About a third of adults ages 50 and older (35%) say they are following the war extremely or very closely, roughly double the share of those under 50 (18%).

Americans who have been paying greater attention to news about the war are more likely than others to have an opinion about the administration’s response and to approve of it. Both Democrats and Republicans who have been following the war extremely or very closely give the administration much higher ratings than do those who have been following the conflict less closely. 


Rubén Weinsteiner

יום שלישי, 5 בדצמבר 2023

Comparing Views of the U.S. and China in 24 Countries

 

Rubén Weinsteiner


Difference in shares who say the U.S. and China interfere in the affairs of other countries



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q22 & Q29.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


In recent years, views of the United States and China have changed a lot. This year, the U.S. is largely viewed positively in the 24 countries we surveyed. At the same time, China is seen much more negatively – especially in high-income countries. But favorability does not tell the whole story. Both countries are seen positively in some ways and negatively in others.

Based on surveys conducted in 24 countries, we examine how the U.S. and China stack up to one another on more than 10 different measures, spanning from confidence in their leaders to views of their universities and technological achievements. We focus on the difference in how people see the two superpowers.

Take one aspect of foreign policy as an example. In Greece, 93% say the U.S. interferes in the affairs of other countries, compared with 56% who say the same for China, for a difference of 37 percentage points. The Greek flag is therefore plotted farther to the left, closer to the U.S. end of the scale, at 37.

Australians, though, see little difference between the superpowers and consider both the U.S. (79%) and China (77%) to be interventionist powers. The Australian flag is therefore plotted at 2, close to the midpoint, which represents no difference in ratings of the two countries on this measure.

Across all 24 countries surveyed, we see that while majorities in most countries see both the U.S. and China as prone to interfering in the affairs of other countries, the U.S. is almost always more likely to be described this way. All of the flags are thus generally to the left of the midpoint and closer to the U.S. end. These metrics can be viewed for each country by hovering over that country’s flag.

Ratings of whether the U.S. and China take each country’s interests into account paints a somewhat different picture. Most flags are still to the left of the midpoint – and closer to the U.S. end – because more people across countries say the U.S. accounts for their country’s interests than China. But the flags are more spread out across the scale because publics feel quite differently from one another about this.

We can also see differences between middle- and high-income countries.1 Selecting middle-income countries on the bottom right of the graphic shows that middle-income countries are mostly clustered together around the midpoint of the scale and that they evaluate the U.S. and China similarly.

Conversely, selecting high-income countries shows that they are clustered together on the left, giving higher ratings to the U.S. than China when it comes to accounting for other countries’ interests.

The U.S. also gets higher marks for contributing to global peace and stability than China does, and the differences in evaluations are often 30 points or more. The difference is greatest in Japan, where 79% say the U.S. contributes at least a fair amount to international stability and just 14% say the same of China – a difference of 65 points. While still large in many countries, differences are smaller in many middle-income countries. And in Indonesia and Hungary, U.S. and Chinese contributions to global peace and stability are seen in a similar light.

As the charts above show, views of China and the U.S. vary a lot among the 24 countries surveyed. Besides foreign policy, you can compare views of China and the U.S. on a few other measures. To see charts and analysis for those topics, keep scrolling or select a topic from the list below.

COMPARE U.S. AND CHINA BY:

Favorable views of the U.S. and China

Difference in shares who say they have favorable views of the U.S. and China


Opinion skews toward the U.S. most heavily in the high-income countries surveyed, with differences of 50 percentage points or more in favor of the U.S. in Poland, Japan and South Korea. In all three countries, more than seven-in-ten offer positive ratings of the U.S., and fewer than three-in-ten have favorable opinions of China.

In most middle-income countries surveyed, views of both powers are generally positive, leading to a smaller difference in views. Nigeria is the lone public surveyed with warmer opinions of China than of the U.S., though both the U.S. and China receive positive ratings from large majorities of Nigerians.

Hungary – notably the only country where positive ratings of the U.S. are the minority opinion – and Kenya stand out for having near equal shares of adults who rate the U.S. and China favorably. Just under half offer positive ratings of each superpower in Hungary, and roughly seven-in-ten Kenyans see the U.S. and China favorably.
Is favorability of the U.S. and China zero-sum?

An alternate way to think about favorability is to look at whether individuals in a given country hold positive views of one superpower and not the other – essentially a “zero-sum” mindset.

In nine countries, this seems to be the case: A majority or plurality has favorable views of the U.S. but not China. In both Japan and Poland, 63% of adults have a favorable view of the U.S. and an unfavorable view of China.

Particularly in middle-income countries, though, pluralities of a third or more have favorable views of both world powers. This includes majorities in both Nigeria and Kenya. No more than a fifth of adults in any country surveyed have a favorable opinion of China and an unfavorable opinion of the U.S.

Leading economic power

Difference in shares who say the U.S. and China are the world’s leading economic power



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q10.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


The U.S. economy is larger than China’s but has tended to grow less per year, at least until recently. Still, the U.S. is considered by most surveyed publics to be the world’s leading economic power. And, in many countries, this sense is growing. In Sweden, for example, 51% now say that the U.S. is the leading economy, compared with 39% in 2020, when they were more likely to give the title to China.

South Koreans are especially likely to see the U.S. as the world’s top economy, with 83% giving the title to the U.S. compared with just 8% to China. Sizable differences of around 40 percentage points in favor of the U.S. are also seen in Japan, Poland, Israel and India.

Still, five countries – most of which are in Europe – see China as the leading economy. This includes Italy, which is the only country where a majority considers China the world’s leading economy.

Investment from the U.S. and China

In 12 countries, people were asked if American and Chinese investment have benefited their economies.2

In Australia, Indonesia, Kenya and South Africa, similar shares see investments from both superpowers as having helped their country’s economy at least a fair amount. Conversely, Argentines are equally likely to see Chinese and U.S. investment as having not benefited their country’s economy.

For those in Israel, Poland, India, Brazil and Mexico, U.S. investment is seen as more beneficial.

Only in Hungary and Nigeria is Chinese investment seen more favorably than U.S. investment. Even then, 74% of Nigerians say investment from the U.S. has benefited their country at least a fair amount.

Ratings of American and Chinese technology

Difference in shares who say U.S. and Chinese technology is above average or the best compared with other wealthy nations



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q20d & Q31d. Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15e.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


The U.S. and China are both widely seen as technological powerhouses. For example, together they dominate the global digital market. Between Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS, American companies have the vast majority of the mobile operating system market share worldwide. Yet China leads the charge toward 5G and global network coverage.

Across the 24 countries surveyed, a median of 72% describe U.S. technology as the best or above average and 69% say the same of Chinese technology. And evaluations of the two superpowers’ technological prowess differ little in seven countries. For example, 83% of Spaniards say American technology is above average or the best, compared with 82% who say the same for China.

Seven publics give U.S. technology more positive ratings. Among them, Israelis and South Koreans stand out for their favorable evaluations of American technology relative to Chinese technology; this is driven by Israelis’ high ratings of American technology and South Koreans’ low ratings of Chinese technology.

China’s technology is seen more positively in 10 countries, including in the U.S. Technological achievements are the only measure where Americans see China outpacing the U.S. About two-thirds of American adults (66%) say China’s technology is above average or the best, compared with 56% who say the same about their own country.

There is little distinction between middle- and high-income countries’ ratings of either country’s technology, but some regional patterns do emerge. China’s technological achievements are rated more positively in the Latin American countries surveyed, while the Asian countries included give the U.S. more positive marks.

Quality of American and Chinese technology products

Respondents in 12 countries further evaluated technology from the U.S. and China on their quality and other attributes.

Roughly three-quarters or more in each country surveyed say American products are well-made, including 94% in Nigeria and 92% in Israel. China’s technology gets more variable ratings, with 82% in Nigeria saying it’s well-made compared with just 36% in Israel. Israel is the lone country to have a majority say China’s technological products are poorly made.

Respondents were also asked about the price of technology products from either country. A 12-country median of 77% call American products expensive, while 42% say the same of Chinese products.

With regards to data security, views are mixed. On balance, people are more likely to say technology produced by American companies protects personal data than to say the same of Chinese companies.

Still, the shares who say American technology protects personal data range from 81% in Nigeria to 25% in Hungary. China’s technology garners similarly varied opinion, with 78% in Nigeria saying it protects users’ personal data but just 15% of Australians saying the same.

Earlier this year, as TikTok faced a potential ban in the U.S., most Americans were similarly distrusting when asked about data privacy and the behavior of Chinese social media companies.

Ratings of American and Chinese militaries

Difference in shares who say the U.S. and Chinese militaries are above average or the best compared with other wealthy nations



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q20c & Q31c. Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15d.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


The U.S. and China are home to two of the world’s largest militaries. China’s active forces are nearly double the size of the United States’, though the U.S. outspends China on defense.

Majorities in every country surveyed say the American military is above average or the best, while the same is only true for China in about half of the countries surveyed.

In most countries surveyed, the U.S. military receives significantly higher ratings than China’s. There are three exceptions: In Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, all NATO allies of the U.S., the United States’ and China’s militaries are about equally likely to be considered above average or the best. However, the U.S. military gets more recognition than China’s when considering only those who say each is the best.

Israelis stand out for their near unanimous positive ratings of the U.S. forces. While a majority of Israelis rate China’s military highly, the 39-point gap in ratings is the largest of any country surveyed.

Unlike other measures of hard and soft power, there is little difference in ratings of the American and Chinese militaries between middle- and high-income countries.

American and Chinese entertainment

Difference in shares who say U.S. and Chinese entertainment is above average or the best compared with other wealthy nations



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q20e & Q31e. Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15f.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


In 2020, China replaced the U.S. as the world’s largest film market after a number of successful local productions, and its government released a five-year improvement plan for its film industry a year later. Most of the top 10 highest grossing films globally were nonetheless still American productions in 2022.

Global views of entertainment from each country parallel these trends. U.S. entertainment – including its music, movies and television – is more than four times more likely to be seen as the best or above average than China’s (a 24-country median of 71% vs. 17%, respectively).

High-income countries view American entertainment more favorably than middle-income countries. Entertainment ratings skew toward the U.S. most heavily in Israel, where adults are 71 percentage points more likely to call American entertainment, rather than Chinese, above average or the best. Differences greater than 60 points in favor of the U.S. are also seen among the Dutch, Italians, Poles and Swedes.

The sub-Saharan African publics surveyed offer the highest praise for Chinese entertainment, especially in Nigeria, where 67% say it is the best or above average. Even so, each public gives U.S. entertainment higher ratings.

American and Chinese universities

Difference in shares who say U.S. and Chinese universities are above average or the best compared with other wealthy nations



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q20a & Q31a. Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15b.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


In May 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans for bolstering China’s education system to spread its global influence and create a “‘Study in China’ brand.” Currently, out of the top 100 universities in the world, as rated by the Times Higher Education, only seven are in China, whereas 34 are in the U.S.

This disparity is reflected in views of the two countries’ universities. Across the 24 countries surveyed, a median of 68% say U.S. universities are above average or the best, while just 35% say the same of China’s.

Universities in the U.S. receive significantly more positive ratings than universities in China in all countries surveyed. Middle-income countries give both countries’ universities some of the most favorable evaluations, but the gap in the ratings of the two are similar to the gaps seen in high-income countries.

Europe is home to some of the largest differences as well as the smallest. Poles, Greeks and Hungarians are at least 40 points more likely to say American universities are above average or the best than Chinese universities. The differences are much smaller – in large part due to less positive outlooks on American universities – in the Netherlands, Germany and the UK.

Notably, the U.S. has one of the least positive perceptions of American universities, along with several other advanced economies. About half in each saying American universities are the best or above average.

American and Chinese standards of living

Difference in shares who say U.S. and Chinese standards of living are above average or the best compared with other wealthy nations



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q20b & Q31b. Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15c.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


As of 2021, both the U.S. and China fall above the world average on the United Nations’ Human Development Index, but the U.S. is considered a very high human development country while China is labeled a high human development country. The difference is reflected in international ratings of the two countries’ standards of living. Though ratings of both vary greatly, greater shares say the standard of living in the U.S. is above average or the best in every country surveyed.

Israelis and Poles stand out for holding particularly skewed views of each country’s standard of living, in favor of the U.S. In Israel and Poland, roughly eight-in-ten regard the standard of living in the U.S. in high regard, while 9% and 19% say the same of China, respectively.

In several high-income countries, ratings of the standard of living are low for both the U.S. and China. For example, just 16% of Germans see the standard of living in the U.S. as above average or the best and 8% say the same of China. In comparison, middle-income countries offer some of the most positive evaluations of the standards of living in the two economic powerhouses.

Respect for personal freedoms

Difference in shares who say the U.S. and China respect the personal freedoms of their people



Note: Publics are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2021 Global Attitudes Survey. Q6a & b.


The U.S. is generally considered by experts to be more democratic than China. Among other organizations, Freedom House describes the U.S. as “free” and China as “not free,” and International IDEA labels the U.S. a “democracy” versus China’s “authoritarian regime.”

Public opinion follows the same pattern. In a survey of 17 high-income publics in 2021, the U.S. government was far more likely than the Chinese government to be seen as respecting its people’s personal freedoms, and previous surveys of both high- and middle-income countries have recorded similar findings. The U.S. government was seen as more respectful of its people’s personal freedoms than China’s even as it received increasingly negative ratings between 2013 and 2018.

In 2021, the differences between ratings of the United States’ and China’s treatment of personal freedoms were especially pronounced in South Korea and Taiwan. In both, roughly three-quarters said the U.S. respects its people’s personal freedoms compared with only about one-in-ten who said the same for China. Differences of about 50 percentage points or more were also measured across most of Europe. Conversely, Singapore stood out for having the smallest difference and being the most likely to consider China respectful of its people’s personal freedoms.

Confidence in the American and Chinese presidents

Difference in shares who say they have confidence in U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs



Note: Countries are plotted by the difference in evaluations of the U.S. and China.
Source: Spring 2023 Global Attitudes Survey. Q15a & b.


High-income countries

Middle-income countries


When it comes to leaders, global publics are nearly three times more likely to have confidence in U.S. President Joe Biden than in Chinese President Xi Jinping (medians across 23 countries, not including the U.S., of 54% and 19%, respectively). Each country surveyed is more likely to have confidence in Biden than Xi, but this has not always been the case for ratings of the U.S. president.

The gap in confidence ratings of the U.S. president and the Chinese president has shifted greatly in the last 10 years with each American leader. Views of the two leaders were most similar in several countries when former President Donald Trump held office.

Views of Biden and Xi differ across high- and middle-income countries. Those in middle-income countries are more likely to rate Biden and Xi similarly. For example, 71% of Nigerians have confidence in Biden, while 62% say the same of Xi – a 9-point difference.

In high-income countries, the gap tends to be much larger – especially in parts of Europe, including Poland and Sweden.

In many places, though, respondents are less likely to offer an opinion on Xi than Biden. For example, in Hungary, 24% of respondents said they did not know the answer or declined to answer when asked about their confidence in Xi, while only 6% responded similarly when asked about Biden. 


Rubén Weinsteiner

יום שני, 27 בנובמבר 2023

How people around the world view same-sex marriage

 





Attitudes about same-sex marriage vary widely around the world, according to several MARCA POLITICA Center surveys fielded in 32 places in the last two years. Among the surveyed publics, support for legal same-sex marriage is highest in Sweden, where 92% of adults favor it, and lowest in Nigeria, where only 2% back it.

In the United States, where the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage nationally in 2015, 63% of adults support it and 34% oppose it. But views are highly fractured along political and demographic lines.

For example, Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party are nearly twice as likely as Republicans and Republican leaners to support same-sex marriage rights (82% vs. 44%). Similarly, nearly three-quarters (73%) of Americans under the age of 40 say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally – 16 percentage points higher than the share of Americans 40 and older who agree (57%).

Related: In places where same-sex marriages are legal, they account for a small share of all marriages

Below is a closer look at how attitudes about same-sex marriage differ around the world, based on our surveys. This analysis looks at how attitudes vary by geography, demographic factors, political ideology and religion, as well as how views have changed over time.


This Pew Research Center analysis focuses on public opinion of the legality of same-sex marriage in 32 places in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. This is the first year since 2019 that the Global Attitudes Survey has included publics from Africa and Latin America, which were not included more recently due to the coronavirus outbreak.

For non-U.S. data, this analysis draws from three nationally representative surveys conducted across 31 publics. In 21 publics, we conducted a survey of 24,546 adults from Feb. 20 to May 22, 2023. All interviews were conducted over the phone in Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in Hungary, Poland, India, Indonesia, Israel, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. In Australia, we used a mixed-mode probability-based online panel.

Data for Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam draws on another survey of 10,390 adults conducted in five Asian publics from June 2 to Sept. 17, 2023. All interviews in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were conducted over the phone. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in Vietnam.

Data for Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand draws on a third survey of 10,551 adults conducted in five South and Southeast Asian publics from June 1 to Sept. 4, 2022. All interviews in Malaysia and Singapore were conducted over the phone. Interviews were conducted face-to-face in Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Both the survey in East Asia and the one in South and Southeast Asia are part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world.

In the United States, we surveyed 3,576 U.S. adults from March 20 to 26, 2023. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.

Respondents for all surveys were selected using probability-based sample designs. In Thailand, we conducted additional interviews in the Southern region, which has larger shares who are Muslim. The data in all publics is weighted to account for different probabilities of selection among respondents and to align with demographic benchmarks for adult populations.

This post is an update of one published June 13, 2023. This new post includes more publics surveyed. It also uses a different rounding procedure to generate the “total” figures, so results may differ slightly from previously published estimates. The accompanying topline figures are unchanged.

Here are the questions used for the analysis, along with responses, and the survey methodology.
How attitudes about same-sex marriage vary geographically

Europe

People in Western Europe stand out as staunch supporters of same-sex marriage. At least eight-in-ten adults support it in Sweden (92%), the Netherlands (89%), Spain (87%), France (82%) and Germany (80%). In each of these places, the practice is legal.

In Italy, where issues of LGBTQ+ rights have been in the headlines, 73% of adults favor same-sex marriage rights, though it is not legal there.

Around three-quarters (74%) of adults in the United Kingdom also support same-sex marriage. The practice is legal in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, although those laws were approved at various times over the past decade.

At the other end of the spectrum in Europe, just 41% of adults in Poland and 31% in Hungary support same-sex marriage. In both places, same-sex marriage is not legal, and LGBTQ+ rights are a political and social flashpoint.

Americas

In North America, around eight-in-ten Canadians (79%) support same-sex marriage, as do 63% in both the U.S. and Mexico. Same-sex marriage is legal in all three places.

Related: About six-in-ten Americans say legalization of same-sex marriage is good for society

In South America, 67% of Argentines and 52% of Brazilians support the right of gay and lesbian people to marry. Both places have also legalized the practice.

Asia-Pacific

In the Asia-Pacific region, support for same-sex marriage is highest in Australia and Japan. Three-quarters of adults inAustralia and nearly seven-in-ten (68%) in Japan favor legal same-sex marriage. But while many Australians who favor same-sex marriage say they strongly support it (52%), support is weaker in Japan, where a 56% majority somewhat favor legal same-sex marriage. Australia has legalized same-sex marriage, but Japan has not.

Views toward legalizing same-sex marriage are similarly favorable in Vietnam, where 65% say they support it.

In India, 53% of adults say same-sex marriage should be legal, while 43% oppose it. The Indian Supreme Court recently rejected a petition to legalize same-sex marriage. (The survey there was conducted prior to the ruling.)

And in Taiwan, roughly equal shares say they support (45%) and oppose (43%) same-sex marriage, with the remainder providing no answer. Taiwan is the only place in Asia where same-sex marriage is legal.

In South Korea, same-sex marriage is not legal, though some lawmakers have proposed changing this. Among South Koreans, 41% favor legal same-sex marriage and 56% oppose it.

Indonesians are highly opposed to same-sex marriage legalization. Roughly nine-in-ten (92%) oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry, including 88% who say they strongly oppose it. Just 5% of Indonesians support same-sex marriage.

Related: Asian views of same-sex marriage

Africa and Middle East

South Africa remains the only place in Africa where same-sex marriage is legal, having codified it in 2006. Nevertheless, 59% of South Africans oppose the practice.

Nigerians and Kenyans are the least supportive of same-sex marriage rights among the places in Africa surveyed. In Nigeria, where homosexuality is illegal, only 2% of adults say they support allowing gays and lesbians to marry. And in Kenya, just 9% favor it.

In the Middle East, 56% of Israelis are also opposed to making same-sex marriage legal. Religious affiliation and political leanings heavily shape views of same-sex marriage rights in Israel.
How attitudes about same-sex marriage vary by demographic factors

Age

In 21 of the places surveyed, adults under the age of 35 are more likely than their older counterparts to say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. And in some places, older adults are less likely to provide a response than younger adults.

The age gap is greatest in Taiwan. Three-quarters of Taiwanese adults under 35 express support for same-sex marriage, compared with roughly a third of those 35 and older.

Gender

In 19 of the surveyed places, women are more likely than men to say they support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally.

For example, in Australia, 83% of women favor it, compared with 67% of men.

There are similar gender differences in Argentina, Cambodia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Taiwan.

Education and income

In 22 of the surveyed places, people with more education are more likely than those with less education to support allowing gays and lesbians to marry. In some places, those with less education are less likely to provide a response than those with more education.

Similarly, in 10 places, people with incomes over the national average are more likely than those with incomes at or below the median to support same-sex marriage. In one of these places – Poland – those with lower incomes were less likely to provide a response.
How attitudes about same-sex marriage vary by political ideology

Views on same-sex marriage are related to political ideology in 15 of the 18 places where we asked about respondents’ ideology this year. In these places, those on the ideological left are significantly more likely than those on the right to favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally.

The ideological difference is greatest in the U.S., where liberals are 54 points more likely than conservatives to support same-sex marriage (90% vs. 36%). Still, in nine surveyed places, majorities of those on both the right and left say they support same-sex marriage.
How attitudes about same-sex marriage vary by religion

Support for legal same-sex marriage tends to be lower in places where more people say religion is somewhat or very important in their lives. Support is higher in places where fewer people consider religion important.

In Nigeria, 99% of adults say religion is at least somewhat important in their lives and only 2% favor legal same-sex marriage. In Indonesia, where 100% of Indonesians say religion is important to them, 5% support legal same-sex marriage. In Sweden, by comparison, just 20% of adults consider religion important to them – and 92% favor allowing gay and lesbian people to wed.

Similarly, people who are not affiliated with a religion are much more likely to say they support same-sex marriage. In Australia, for example, 89% of religiously unaffiliated adults say they favor same-sex marriage, compared with 64% of adults with a religious affiliation.

Together, the most recent surveys show some additional patterns by religion: Religiously unaffiliated Americans (85%) – especially atheists (96%) – are the most likely to favor same-sex marriage legality. White, non-Hispanic evangelical Protestants are the least likely religious group to say they favor it (30%). Around two-thirds of U.S. Catholics (65%) favor same-sex marriage, as do 70% of White nonevangelical Protestants.
In Brazil, Catholics (56%) are more likely than Protestants (32%) to support same-sex marriage.
In Israel, Jewish adults (41%) are more likely than Muslims (8%) to support same-sex marriage. Among Israeli Jews, 4% of those who are Haredi (“ultra-Orthodox”) or Dati (“religious”) support legal same-sex marriage, compared with 29% of Masorti (“traditional”) Jews. Around three-quarters of Hiloni (“secular”) Jews support this policy.
In Nigeria, Christians and Muslims are equally likely to oppose same-sex marriage (97% and 98%, respectively).
How attitudes about same-sex marriage have changed over time

It is difficult to directly compare these new survey findings with past surveys on whether people favor or oppose same-sex marriage. Earlier Center surveys focused more on religion and its influence in society, rather than political attitudes and international affairs. And in some places, the mode of the survey (e.g., face-to-face vs. phone vs. web) has changed over time.

However, a comparison with surveys conducted in Latin America in 2013-14, in Europe in 2015-17, and the long-term trend in the U.S. generally shows increased public support for the legalization of same-sex marriage over the past decade.

יום שישי, 20 באוקטובר 2023

Support for more political parties in the U.S. is higher among adults under age 50



 

With a record share of Americans expressing unfavorable views of both major parties, 37% of Americans wish there were more political parties to choose from, according to a recent MARCA POLITICA Center survey.


Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to understand Americans’ views about the prospect of additional political parties, as part of an in-depth study of how Americans view the state of U.S. politics today.

Everyone who took part in the current survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.




Yet there is considerable skepticism that having additional parties would make it easier to solve the nation’s problems. About a quarter of adults (26%) say this would make it easier to solve problems, while nearly as many (24%) say it would not. Americans’ views on the idea of having more political parties differ by age and partisanship: Nearly half (48%) of adults under age 30 and a similar share (46%) of those 30 to 49 say they often wish there were more political parties. That compares with a third of those ages 50 to 64 and just 21% of those 65 and older who say the same.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (44%) are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners (32%) to say they often wish there were more political parties. In both partisan coalitions, leaners – those who identify as independent or another party but lean toward one of the two major parties – are more likely to wish for additional parties. Democratic leaners are especially likely to say this.
Would more parties help solve the country’s problems?

Just as younger Americans are more likely to express a desire for more parties, they are also more likely to think additional parties would make it easier to solve the country’s problems.

About four-in-ten Americans ages 18 to 29 (39%) say they think more parties would make problem-solving easier. Just 12% of those 65 and older say this.

Party leaners are more likely than partisans to think additional parties would make it easier to solve the country’s problems. But Democratic leaners are more likely than Republican leaners to say this (44% vs. 29%).
Age differences in both parties

Republicans under age 50 are nearly twice as likely as those 50 and older (42% vs. 23%) to say they often wish there were more political parties. And younger Republicans are twice as likely (28% vs. 14%) to say more parties would make problem-solving easier.

A similar pattern emerges for Democrats. While about half (51%) of Democrats under the age of 50 often wish there were more parties to choose from, 31% of those 50 and older say the same. Roughly four-in-ten younger Democrats (41%) say it would be easier to solve the country’s problems with more parties, compared with 20% of older Democrats.
Could an independent candidate win the presidency?

As in past presidential elections, one or more independent candidates could siphon votes from the Republican and Democratic nominees in next year’s election.

However, most Americans are doubtful that an independent candidate could actually win the presidency in the next 25 years.

Only a third of Americans say it’s even somewhat likely an independent will win the presidency during this period, including just 7% who say it is very likely.

There are only modest differences in these views by age and party. About two-thirds in all age groups and in both party coalitions say it’s unlikely an independent candidate will be elected president in the next quarter century.

יום שני, 2 באוקטובר 2023

How Americans see the state of gender and leadership in business




Rubén Weinsteiner

Women now account for record shares of Fortune 500 chief executives and board members in the United States – 10.6% and 30.4%, respectively. Still, the share of women in top business leadership positions remains well below their share of the population.

This analysis is based on a survey of 5,057 U.S. adults conducted July 17-23, 2023. Everyone who took part is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. Address-based sampling ensures that nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.



A majority of Americans (55%) say there are too few women in top executive business positions, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. This is down somewhat from 59% who said this in 2018.

Among those who say there are too few women in top business positions, most (79%) say it would be ideal to have the same number of women and men in these roles. One-in-ten say having more women than men would be ideal. The same share (10%) say it would be ideal to have more women in these positions than there are now, but still not as many women as men.

Related: Women and Political Leadership Ahead of the 2024 Election
Why aren’t there more women in top executive business positions?

Americans see many factors as major reasons why there aren’t more women in top executive business positions, such as: Women having to do more to prove themselves than men (58% say this is a major reason)
Gender discrimination (50%)
Family responsibilities (48%)
Many businesses not being ready to hire women for these positions (43%)
Sexual harassment creating an environment that makes it harder for women to succeed (40%)
Will there ever be as many women as men in top executive business positions?

Americans are divided on this question. Half say that, even as more women move into management roles, men will continue to hold more of these top positions. A similar share (48%) say that as more women move into management roles, it’s only a matter of time before there are as many women as men in top executive positions in business.
How views vary by gender

On nearly every question we asked, women and men express different views about the current state of gender and business leadership: 65% of women say there are too few women in top executive business positions, compared with 45% of men. Men are more likely than women to say the number of women in these positions is about right (46% vs. 29%).
55% of women say men will continue to hold more top executive business positions in the future. In turn, more than half of men (54%) say it’s only a matter of time before there are as many women as men in these roles.
By large margins, women are more likely than men to see nearly all of the potential obstacles we asked about as major reasons why there aren’t more women in top business leadership positions.
How views vary by party

There are also differences in the views of Democrats and Democratic leaners when compared with Republicans and those who lean to the GOP. Among these differences: 76% of Democrats say there are too few women in top business leadership positions, compared with 33% of Republicans. A majority of Republicans (56%) say the number of women in these positions is about right.
Most Democrats say women having to do more to prove themselves than men (73%) and gender discrimination (67%) are major reasons why there aren’t more women in top business leadership positions. This compares with 42% and 30% of Republicans, respectively.
Among Republicans, family responsibilities are cited more often than any other factor as a major reason why there aren’t more women in top leadership positions in business. Similar shares of Republicans (48%) and Democrats (49%) see this as a major reason.
Gender differences among Republicans and Democrats

On many questions, there are differences by gender within each party. Republican and Democratic women are more likely than their male counterparts to say there are too few women in top business leadership positions and to point to certain factors as major obstacles for women.

Rubén Weinsteiner