Rubén Weinsteiner
Americans overwhelmingly view China as a “competitor” or an “enemy”
to the United States, rather than a “partner.” And it appears that most
U.S. adults do not think that their country is winning the competition
for geopolitical influence, according to a recent Pew Research Center
survey. 
Nearly
half of Americans (47%) say that the United States’ influence in the
world has been getting weaker in recent years. Only about one-in-five
say U.S. influence has been getting stronger, while 32% say U.S.
influence has been staying about the same.
This is in stark
contrast with views of China: Two-thirds of U.S. adults say that the
country’s influence has been getting stronger in recent years. Roughly
one-in-five Americans say China’s global influence is holding steady,
and only one-in-ten say China’s influence has been weakening.
How we did this 
Views
of these two powers’ relative sway in the international arena are
closely associated with both partisanship and ideology. Republicans and
Republican-leaning independents are significantly more likely than
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to say U.S. influence in
the world has been getting weaker (63% and 37%, respectively). And
self-described conservative Republicans are substantially more likely
than moderate or liberal Republicans to hold this view (70% vs. 47%),
while liberal Democrats are more inclined than conservative or moderate
Democrats to say U.S. influence has been waning (43% vs. 32%).
Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to think that China’s international influence
has been growing stronger in recent years (72% vs. 63%). Previous
research has found that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to
view China’s power and influence as a major threat to the U.S.
Once
again, those on the ends of the ideological spectrum are more likely to
hold this opinion. Nearly eight-in-ten conservative Republicans (78%)
say China’s influence is growing, compared with 60% of moderate and
liberal Republicans. Among Democrats, 72% of liberals think China’s
influence is growing, while only 57% of moderates and conservatives say
the same.
Men are somewhat more likely than women to say the
United States’ influence in the world has been weakening, whereas women
are more inclined to see stability in the country’s relative influence.
Differences by age or education generally are more muted.
Views about the influence of other countries, international institutions
The
survey also asked Americans about the global influence of several other
countries, as well as a few major international institutions.
Amid
the ongoing war in Ukraine, views of Russia’s influence are closely
divided, with about equal shares saying Russia’s influence has been
getting stronger (38%) and getting weaker (37%). Only about one-in-five
Americans say Russia’s influence is staying the same. 
There
also is no consensus among Americans about the influence of NATO, the
European Union and the United Nations. Among these three, the highest
share of Americans say NATO’s influence on the global stage has been
getting stronger in recent years (34%), with 39% saying its influence
has been holding steady and a quarter saying NATO’s influence has been
waning. Once again, these views are linked with partisanship and
ideology: Liberal Democrats are the most likely to say NATO’s influence
is getting stronger (42%), while conservative Republicans are the most
likely to say NATO’s influence has been weakening (33%).
Russia’s discomfort with NATO expansion to Eastern Europe has been described by some as a motive for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, after which Finland and Sweden announced bids to join the military alliance following decades of non-alignment. The EU also has had a role to play in the recent conflict, including discussions about Ukrainian membership and sanctions against Russia.
About
one-in-five U.S. adults (22%) say the EU’s international influence is
getting stronger, while about a third say its influence is weakening. A
plurality (43%) thinks the EU’s influence is staying steady.
Americans
are more negative about the UN’s influence, with about four-in-ten U.S.
adults saying its influence has been waning in recent years. The UN Security Council has come under fire
for failing to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, since Russia’s
permanent seat on the Council means it has veto power over all
resolutions. Just 16% of Americans say the UN’s influence in the world
has been getting stronger.
Americans largely see stability in
the influence of France, India, Germany and the United Kingdom, with
six-in-ten or more saying the influence of these countries has been
staying about the same in recent years. Notably, more than twice as many
Americans say India’s influence is strengthening rather than weakening
(23% vs. 11%). The opposite is true for the UK: 23% say its influence
has been getting weaker and only 13% say it has been getting stronger. 
Democrats
are somewhat more likely than Republicans to say the influence of a few
key U.S. allies (such as France, Germany, NATO and the EU) is growing.
For example, about four-in-ten Democrats say NATO’s influence in the
world has been getting stronger in recent years (39%), compared with
about three-in-ten Republicans (29%).
On the other hand,
Republicans are slightly more likely to say Russia’s influence in the
world is growing. Ideology also factors into this assessment:
Conservative Republicans are more likely than moderate and liberal
Republicans to say that Russia’s influence has been growing in recent
years.
Knowledge of international affairs connected with opinions 
Opinions also are linked with respondents’ level of international knowledge.
(International knowledge was measured on this survey with 12 multiple
choice questions about global leaders, international institutions and
geography. For more information on the international knowledge scale,
see “How we designed a scale to measure Americans’ knowledge of international affairs.”)
Those
with high levels of knowledge are significantly more likely than others
to say that China, India and Germany have had growing international
influence in recent years. In the case of China, the knowledge gap is
quite large: 82% of those with high international knowledge think
China’s influence has been getting stronger, while just 45% of those
with low knowledge say the same.
The U.S. is the only country
where more international knowledge is linked with more pessimistic
views. Over half of Americans with high international knowledge (54%)
say that U.S. influence in the world has been getting weaker, compared
with about one-third of Americans with low international knowledge
(35%).
Rubén Weinsteiner
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