Rubén Weinsteiner
Youth
turnout in 2022 currently tracking record-breaking 2018 turnout; 55% of
likely voters prefer Democratic control of Congress, 34% prefer
Republican control. A majority disapprove of both parties’ performance
in Congress amid weakening feelings of political efficacy
More
than six months out, youth turnout in 2022 midterm elections is on track
to match 2018 turnout, with 36% of young Americans reporting that they
will “definitely” be voting compared to 37% at this stage in 2018.
Compared
with Spring 2018 Harvard IOP polling, the composition of the electorate
looks different. Young Democrats (38% of 18–29-year-olds) are less
likely (-5 points) and young Republicans (25% of 18-29-year-olds) are
more likely (+7) to vote at this stage. While interest among white and
Hispanic voters did not change significantly, young Asian American and
Pacific Islander voters show increased interest (+13), while young Black
Americans show significantly less interest in voting (-13) than they
did at this point in the 2018 midterm election cycle.
Overall,
40% of Americans under 30 prefer Democrats maintain control of
Congress, while 28% prefer Republicans; 32% are unsure. This +12-point
margin for Democrats widens to +21 when the lens is narrowed to likely
voters. Among likely voters who are unaffiliated or independent,
Democrats lead +14, with more than a quarter (27%) undecided.
A
warning sign that interest in voting in the 2022 midterms could wane,
we found a sharp decrease relative to Spring 2018 in attitudes related
to the efficacy of voting and political engagement relative. For
example:
The percentage of youth agreeing that “political
involvement rarely has any tangible results” has risen from 22% in 2018
to 36% in 2022.
Agreement with the statement “I don’t believe my vote will make a real difference,” increased from 31% in 2018 to 42% in 2022.
Agreement that “politics today are no longer able to meet the
challenges our country is facing,” increased from 45% in 2018 to 56% in
2022. 
2.
41% of young Americans approve of President Biden’s job performance
overall; A majority (52%) approve of his handling of the pandemic, 46%
approve of his performance regarding Ukraine – but only one-in-three
approve of how the President is handling the economy (34%)
At
41%, President Biden’s job approval among young Americans is down 18
percentage points since Spring 2021 (59%) and five points since the last
Harvard IOP youth poll release in Fall 2021 (46%). Seventy percent
(70%) of young Democrats now approve of President Biden’s job
performance (-5 since Fall 2021), as compared to 33% of independents
(-6) and 11% of Republicans (+2). For comparison, President Trump’s
approval was 25% at this stage in the 2018 midterm cycle and President
Obama’s approval was 56% in the Spring of 2010.
The leading
reason cited for disapproval of Biden is “ineffectiveness” (36%), which
leads other options provided to respondents such as “not following
through on campaign promises” (14%) and “not sharing my values” (10%).
Nearly
half (49%) of young Americans believe that things in the nation are off
on the wrong track, with only 13% saying they are headed in the right
direction. This stands in contrast to the Spring 2021 survey where about
one-third (35%) believed things were headed off on the wrong track, and
26% said right direction.
Two-in-five (40%) young
Democrats indicate they want to see and hear more from President Biden,
compared to 21% of Republicans and 18% of independents who say the same.
Half of young Americans believe the GOP cares more about “the
interests of the elite” than for people like them (21%); a plurality
(39%) say the same about Democrats; 3-in-5 see the other party as a
threat to democracy
Forty percent (40%) of young Americans
approve of the job performance of Democrats in Congress, 31% approve of
the job that Republicans are doing in Congress. These ratings are
virtually unchanged since the Fall 2021 survey (Democrats -2,
Republicans even).
By a double-digit margin (-11), young
Americans believe the Democratic party cares more about serving the
interests of the elite (39%) than young people like them (28%). Among
likely voters in the Fall midterm, the margin is -10, and it swells to
-25 among likely voters who are white, -19 among likely male voters, and
-17 among likely voters without a college degree or experience.
Current
perceptions of the Republican party are more negative as 51% of young
Americans under 30 believe the GOP cares more about the elite than
serving the interests of people like them (21%). This -30-point margin
is triple the Democratic party’s deficit and rises to -38 among likely
voters. Across every major demographic subgroup, more youth believe
Republicans favor the elite. Among likely young voters who are men, the
margin is -27, among women it is -55, and among likely white voters the
margin is -34.
The survey found that 59% of young Democrats
and 61% of young Republicans see the other party as a threat to
democracy. Among likely voters, 74% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans
saw the other party as a threat to democracy.
In an
open-ended question about which part of their identity they consider
most when voting, we found notable differences between Democrats and
Republicans. Democrats are more likely to consider gender, race,
ethnicity, and sexual identity, while Republicans are more likely to
consider religion, faith, political and party preferences when voting. 
Young Americans, across demographic and partisan divides, are
overwhelmingly comfortable with a close friend coming out as LGBTQ;
steady support charted for more than a decade
Nearly
three-quarters (72%) of young Americans report they are either “very” or
“somewhat” comfortable with a close friend coming out as LGBTQ. The
poll finds that 84% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans and 74% of
independents are comfortable, as are 68% of males, 76% of females, 72%
of young Catholics, and 61% of young Evangelical or Fundamentalist
Christians.
The poll also found widespread support of close
friends who are transitioning and for the use of they/them pronouns,
but strong partisan divides emerge:
61% of young Americans are
comfortable with a close friend transitioning from one gender to another
(77% Democrat, 33% Republican, 64% independent);
56% of young Americans are comfortable with using they/them pronouns (73% Democrat, 32% Republican, 54% independent); and
46% are comfortable with transgender athletes participating in sports (65% Democrat, 20% Republican, 44% independent).
Over
the last decade, overall acceptance for same-sex relationships has
increased significantly among young Americans. In 2011, a quarter (25%)
indicated such relationships were morally wrong, 42% disagreed, while
29% were unsure (net difference 17 points). Now, more than a decade
later, we found that 23% find them morally wrong, with 52% disagreeing
with this viewpoint (and 24% unsure), which indicates growing support
for LGBTQ-identifying peers (net difference 29). 
Despite growing acceptance of LGBTQ-identifying youth, nearly half
(45%) of LGBTQ youth feel under attack “a lot” because of their sexual
orientation and are nearly three times as likely as straight youth
(LGBTQ: 28%, Straight: 11%) to be uncomfortable expressing their
identity and true self with family.
About one-in-five young
18-to-29-year-olds identify as LGBTQ (21%) – of which 45% report feeling
under “a lot” of attack in America because of their sexual orientation.
Of the 79% of straight-identifying youth in our poll, nearly one-fifth
(18%) feel under “a lot” of attack for similar reasons.
Only
about one-third (34%) of LGBTQ youth feel “very comfortable” expressing
their true selves with family, while 61% of straight youth feel the
same way; another 36% of LGBTQ youth and 24% of straight youth say they
feel “somewhat comfortable.” Time with family represents the only major
difference between LGBTQ and straight youth on a battery of questions
that probed other personal and professional areas. For example:
60% of LGBTQ youth and 55% of straight youth are very comfortable expressing their identity with friends;
32% of LGBTQ youth and 29% of straight youth are very comfortable expressing their identity at school;
30% of LGBTQ youth and 22% of straight youth are very comfortable expressing their identity on social media;
25% of LGBTQ youth and 31% of straight youth are very comfortable expressing their identity at work.
When
the same battery of questions is filtered through political party, we
find young Republicans (68%) are more likely than Democrats (53%) to
feel “very comfortable” expressing their identity with family, but no
other partisan differences emerge when asked about friends, social
media, school, or work. 
Large proportions of minority groups in the United States –
representing race, religion, politics, and sexuality – feel under attack
in America
Three-fifths (59%) of young Black Americans believe
people of their racial background are under “a lot” of attack in
America, 43% of AAPI youth, 37% of Hispanics, and 19% of whites feel the
same. Compared to Spring 2017, the percent of young Blacks who feel
under “a lot” of attack for their race has stayed relatively constant
(2017: 62%), and for young Hispanics, the proportion who felt under “a
lot” of attack for their race decreased from 46% to 37%.
Despite
small sample sizes, we find that young Muslims, Jews, and Evangelical
Christians are more likely to say people with their religious beliefs
are under attack “a lot” when compared to Protestants and Catholics.
As noted above, 45% of LGBTQ-identifying youth feel like people with their sexual orientation are under attack “a lot.”
Nearly
half of young Republicans (46%) believe that people who hold their
political views are under attack “a lot” in America, compared to 24% of
Democrats who feel the same way. 
Second to the economy, young Americans rank education as more important
to America’s future global strength than the military, technology, or
democracy; still, only one-third (34%) are satisfied with the current
state of K-12 public education
Overall, 50% of young Americans
ranked education as one of the two most important factors to America’s
global strength in the future; fewer Republicans (39%) rated education
as one of the top two factors than Democrats (54%); Democrats ranked
education first among all factors, including above the economy.
While
only 34% of 18-to-29-year-olds express satisfaction with the public
education system, 57% were satisfied with the quality of their own K-12
education. Satisfaction tracked closely with higher educational
attainment, with 67% of college graduates reporting satisfaction versus
51% of those with high school degrees only. Additionally, we found that
registered voters (62%) were more satisfied with their education than
others (48%), as were those living in suburbs (61%) compared to urban
(55%), small town (55%) and rural (52%) residents.
A strong
majority (58%) of young Americans believe that “K-12 public schools
should teach what is morally right and wrong,” and only 13% disagreed
(28% neither agreed nor disagreed) with almost no variation across
demographic, educational, or party lines. For example, 62% of young
Americans who voted for Joe Biden agreed with that sentiment compared to
61% of Trump voters.
By 2-to-1 margins, young Americans are
supportive of greater parental control over education and candidates
that support teaching K-12 students that racism – intentional or not –
is a fixture of American laws and institutions
Nearly half of
young Americans (46%) agree with the statement that “parents should have
more control over their children’s education than they do now,” while
23% disagreed. While Democrats are slightly more likely to agree (35%)
than disagree, (31%) one-third (33%) chose the “neither agree nor
disagree” option. Support for greater parental involvement is
overwhelming for Republicans (64% agree, 14% disagree) and strong for
independent and unaffiliated young voters (44% agree, 20% disagree) as
well.
Approximately half of the survey respondents were
asked their level of agreement with the statement that they “would vote
for a candidate who supports K-12 public schools teaching that racism –
intentional or not – is a fixture of American laws and institutions,”
while the other half were asked about agreement with “I would vote for a
candidate who supports K-12 public schools teaching critical race
theory. In both cases, support for teaching about systemic racism was
2:1 (46%-22% when critical race theory was not mentioned and 44%-22%
with critical race theory mentioned).
Regardless of
question-wording, young white voters supported teaching K-12 students
about the history of race in America. The divides among parties were
prominent: 70% of Democrats under 30 were supportive of candidates who
support teaching that racism is a fixture of American laws and
institutions, compared to 23% of Republicans and a plurality of
independents (37%). Support for candidates in favor of teaching
“critical race theory” without a further definition: Democrats 63%,
Republicans 22%, independents 38%. 
85% of young Americans favor some form of government action on student loan debt, but only 38% favor total debt cancellation
Though
nearly nine-in-ten young Americans under 30 agree that action is
needed, young Americans had no clear consensus on a path forward related
to student loan debt. A plurality favors full debt cancellation (38%),
while 27% favor government assisting with repayment options without any
debt cancellation, and 21% favor debt cancellation for those with the
most need. Only 13% believe the government should not change current
policy. Since 2020, support for full cancellation increased 5 percentage
points, while preference for the government helping with repayment
decreased 8 points.
Opinions on this issue do not differ
significantly among likely voters in the 2022 midterms compared to the
broader population of 18-to-29-year-olds as 83% of young likely voters
express a preference for government action, including 79% of those not
in college now, and without a degree.
Among Democrats likely to vote in November:
43% favor canceling student loan debt for everyone
29% favor canceling student loan debt for only those most in need
19% favor not canceling debt, but helping with repayment options
4% favor not changing the current policy
For Republicans likely to vote in November:
13% favor canceling student loan debt for everyone
11% favor canceling student loan debt for only those most in need
39% favor not canceling debt, but helping with repayment options
36% favor not changing the current policy
For independents likely to vote in November:
38% favor canceling student loan debt for everyone
18% favor canceling student loan debt for only those most in need
30% favor not canceling debt, but helping with repayment options
14% favor not changing the current policy
A
majority (54%) of white Americans and 49% of Asian Americans under 30
“strongly” agreed with the statement “I grew up thinking it was possible
for me to go to college,” compared to only 32% of Blacks and 38% of
Hispanics under 30. Overall, 47% of all young Americans strongly agreed
with the statement, while an additional 23% somewhat agreed (total
agreement 71% with rounding).
Asked whether they agree with
the statement, “Going to college is worth the time and money,” we find
48% of young Americans agreed (but only 18% strongly agreed), 26%
disagreed, and 24% chose a neutral position. Sixty-two percent (62%) of
college students and 61% of college graduates agree with this sentiment.
About half (51%) of young Americans with recent thoughts of
self-harm and 61% of those with depression indicate they have support or
resources to help them deal; significant differences exist based on
race
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of whites suffering from thoughts
of self-harm have access to support or resources, while only 40% of
Blacks say the same.
Among those suffering from bouts of
depression or hopelessness, 61% say they have access to support, but
that number dips to 48% for Blacks, compared to 68% of young whites.
When
young Americans suffering from depression or hopelessness were asked
their interest in several potential support services and resources, we
found the most interest in spending time outside (50% interested),
support of family and friends (47%), and sports or exercise (43%).
Additionally, we found that nearly two-fifths (38%) were interested in
professional therapy, followed by meditation (29%), prescription
medication (26%), church or religion (18%), alcohol or recreational
drugs (18%), and support by authority figures (8%). 
12.
Nearly half of young Americans report that politics and news media have
had negative impacts on their mental health; feelings about school and
work are more positive
Nearly half of 18-to-29-year-olds (45%)
report that politics has had a negative impact on their mental health
and only 13% report a positive impact. Among those who identify as
LGBTQ, the rate is nearly two-thirds (64%), while 42% for straight
youth. Young Americans who do not identify with a major party are more
likely than others (17% independent, 12% Democrat, 11% Republican) to
say that politics has had a very negative impact on their mental health.
Similarly, 46% report that the news media have a negative impact on their mental health.
Nearly
two-in-five (37%) report that social media has a negative impact on
their mental health, while 22% report a positive impact and 39% report
no effect. There is no statistical difference based on age, but we found
that young women (42%) were somewhat more likely to cite negative
mental health effects of social media than young men (35%).
On
the other hand, 45% report that work has had a positive impact on their
mental health and only 21% report a negative impact. The fact that over
three-quarters of young Americans find that work does not have a
negative impact on their mental health accords with a finding from the
Fall 2021 survey, in which 72% of respondents said that, outside of
compensation, they find “some” or “a lot” of meaning in their work.
High
school experience, while nearly as likely to have a positive impact, is
more polarizing: 42% report that school has had a positive impact but
34% report that it has had a negative one. 
About
half (51%) of young Americans with recent thoughts of self-harm and 61%
of those with depression indicate they have support or resources to
help them deal; significant differences exist based on race
Fifty-seven
percent (57%) of whites suffering from thoughts of self-harm have
access to support or resources, while only 40% of Blacks say the same.
Among
those suffering from bouts of depression or hopelessness, 61% say they
have access to support, but that number dips to 48% for Blacks, compared
to 68% of young whites.
When young Americans suffering
from depression or hopelessness were asked their interest in several
potential support services and resources, we found the most interest in
spending time outside (50% interested), support of family and friends
(47%), and sports or exercise (43%). Additionally, we found that nearly
two-fifths (38%) were interested in professional therapy, followed by
meditation (29%), prescription medication (26%), church or religion
(18%), alcohol or recreational drugs (18%), and support by authority
figures (8%).
12.
Nearly half of young Americans report that politics and news media have
had negative impacts on their mental health; feelings about school and
work are more positive
Nearly half of 18-to-29-year-olds (45%)
report that politics has had a negative impact on their mental health
and only 13% report a positive impact. Among those who identify as
LGBTQ, the rate is nearly two-thirds (64%), while 42% for straight
youth. Young Americans who do not identify with a major party are more
likely than others (17% independent, 12% Democrat, 11% Republican) to
say that politics has had a very negative impact on their mental health.
Similarly, 46% report that the news media have a negative impact on their mental health.
Nearly
two-in-five (37%) report that social media has a negative impact on
their mental health, while 22% report a positive impact and 39% report
no effect. There is no statistical difference based on age, but we found
that young women (42%) were somewhat more likely to cite negative
mental health effects of social media than young men (35%).
On
the other hand, 45% report that work has had a positive impact on their
mental health and only 21% report a negative impact. The fact that over
three-quarters of young Americans find that work does not have a
negative impact on their mental health accords with a finding from the
Fall 2021 survey, in which 72% of respondents said that, outside of
compensation, they find “some” or “a lot” of meaning in their work.
High
school experience, while nearly as likely to have a positive impact, is
more polarizing: 42% report that school has had a positive impact but
34% report that it has had a negative one.
אין תגובות:
הוסף רשומת תגובה